Microsoft now likely to announce Record Revenue, Profit, Cash flow on Jan 24th
I now expect (after today's Win8 news) record revenue of between 22-23B beating estimates of 21.7B
I expect record EPS of 80-85c/share beating estimates of 77c/share
I expect record operating cash flow of 11B-12B a new record
I expect Microsoft to guide higher for rest of 2013 including profits of 3.30 for CY2013.
As per stock, who knows..potential is 3.30 *12 = 40 is possible. Company also has $7 in net cash on top of that. Great growth story at deep discount price. Will look to buying tomorrow.
By the way, I looked at the NPD data saying 11% decline of laptops in the US. I think the data by itself is correct but it misses many aspects.
(A) It doesn't factor in earlier Windows (Vista, XP and Win7) to Win8 upgrades
(B) It looks at only laptops and misses Win8 tablets as well as Surface RT
(C) It is too narrow to US geography only. Most of the growth is in China, India, Brazil
Microsoft's data is simply stunned me because they said not only win8 sold 60million but pretty much all of that is on top of the regular win7 sales as win7 continues to roll-out at enterprises at the steady pace of 20million/month now hitting the 60% conversion point for enterprises. Win8 and Win7 will co-exist in enterprises. The last two big surprises were the 1700 different hardware makers creating Win8 certified products and the 100million app download.
Additionally this Q Microsoft had some solid results on Xbox (700K sold on Black Friday); Hal04 (220Million revenue on one day - day of launch). Microsoft already guided about 10% growth in office and serve combined for record evenue and profits.. Eagerly waiting for the 24th
First of only data I saw was the NPD data saying "11% decrease in laptop sales in the US retail" None of these track the exisitng PC upgrades and also all thw data I have seen only seem to focus on US markets and that too US retail. Doesn't cover world markets, tablets and may not even cover oninesale (micrsofot store, online store, surfacr sales)I haven't seen anything related to worldwide data. When enterprises toll-out win7 and win8 it doesn't mean that they buy new laptops automatically, they may choose to upgrade existing hardware.
Micrsofot had a gangbuster quarter with 120Million Windows sales (60M Win8 and likely 60M win7) and you multiply that between 40 to 50 average sellingprice and you can see it was a 4.8B to 6B quarter just on windows. Add Surface, previous qurster recognition etc... Windows divsion likely grew 87% - 100% sequentially. December quarter was a block buster Q. Make no mistake.