Projection is tablet will be the most popular, followed by laptop, followed by desk top.
My view is tablet will eventually saturate. Reason - tablets do simple function thing, such as reading, loading Bible versions for fellowship meetings, chitchatting. It does not use a lot of wear and tear and it lasts longer.
Desktop is a work horse. It is difficult to write a resume at home using tablets and then print a hard copy. Desktops have the most wear-and-tear, requiring replacements may be twice a decade.
Laptop is somewhere is between.
I think desktop will be there for the long haul. Once most everyone is familiar with tablets, it loses its glamor, techie feel. Much like the iPhone is no longer a wow thing like in 2006 or 2007. Or the iPod for that matter.
But desktop has to be there - work related.....
That said, Windows being the prime OS, MSFT should be good long term.
Yeah, but the MSFT Surface tablet is DOA. MSFT took a $900 million charge for unsold inventory of the devices. Suppose MSFT planned to make $100 per tablet. $900mil / $100 = 9million MSFT Surface tablets !!!
... That are sitting in warehouses or shelves!
Tell us something we don't already know. Every product eventually saturates its market.
Most people's computer usage falls well within the capability of a tablet. I personally have always said the desktop computer will never *entirely* go away, but it will decline to a tiny percentage of the total computing market. I will be among those still using a desktop, but already I use my Android-based smartphone about as much as my desktop.
Windows is not likely to be widest-used OS much longer. The Linux-based Chromebook offers huge advantages over a Windows-based enterprise network -- simplified maintenance being one big factor. It is already making inroads into Microsoft's primary cash cow, and can be expected to accelerate as the word gets around among CIO's.
I think the smart phone will overtake the cell. The smart phone can do a lot of things the iPad can do. iPhone is easy store and not bulky like the iPad. Not alarming number of people carrying iPad on the street.
I can visualize high school students plugging their iPad into the backpack and showing off. But they likely have desktops at home. College students may carry iPad in their backpacks also to take notes. But they have to be careful not to get their pads stolen. They also should have a desktop of at least a laptop to do serious homework.
When the hype is over, may be in a few years, I think the desktop will emerge as the predominant work horse. The laptop and iPad may compete with each other for the lesser jobs. Total number of existing hardware will continue to be Desktop follow by iPads and laptops. I don't see iPads total will ever take over the total of desktops - given the existing technology.
Just load up on Windows 7 and you should be fine for the long term.
Don't buy any Windows tablets until they fix the software so users can use it like the iPad! Tiles are so confusing and people are using icons. Microsoft needs to copy iOS and Android User Interface for it to be a successfully OS for Windows 9. All they need to do is replace the tile with an icon. That the trick and make it line up in a row and column. That might be hard to do; but if Apple and Google can do it; Microsoft has the personnel to make the changes. It should not take more then 2 years to complete these modifications.