It's nice to have some rational discourse in one of these things. Thanks.
The Internet/web is not all there is, and not even most of what will be. I will still create and maintain my own data, and so will everyone in my company, and in every organization in the country. And most likely, the data that I create will be more relevant to others within my organization than outside of my organization. So, I'm going to want my data with me. It's faster, more secure, and more reliable than the Internet. Now, the thing about an NC is that it will do all my Internet stuff probably as well as my PC. But it won't do any of the stuff that my PC can do without the Internet. On the other hand, I can do anything on the Internet with my PC that the NC would do. So, I lose nothing by sticking with my old PC, and I lose a lot by going to the NC. As for $300 for an NC - I don't see that yet. A nice monitor will still run more than that.
If you're stating that organizations will INTERNALLY set up web servers with NCs as clients, my reply is: been there, done that. It was called the minicomputer. They were great fun. But they weren't (still aren't) as scaleable as the PC. Which brings us to the final point - this model just didn't respond rapidly enough to end users. As for folks not having the technical background, I think that that oversimplifies things. In my business, we support a couple of thousand users of PCs, minicomputers, mainframes, and the Internet. (People are able to access all these technologies from that much maligned box - the PC!) And here's the bottom line: lots of these folks should have their hands cut off for what they do to the resources given to them. But a large number of end users ARE rather technically proficient (I'd guess around 20% - 30%, depending on the organization). They CAN load software applications. They CAN install plug-n-play cards. And they DO!!! Often, much to our distress!!! You will not successfully take PC-like technology away from them. Not a chance. And too many people currently in senior management (where the money gets spent) were people who pioneered smuggling PC technology into organizations in their more youthful days. Further, I have two sons, and my elder, the 3 year-old, is pretty good at manipulating that mouse, and playing his games. I don't really see the level of technical proficiency in the next generation FALLING from where it is now.
The one area I feel fuzzy about is convergence between TV & Internet. Being technical, it seems an obvious call. But the technical types of the 20s-40s thought that radio and TV would be interactive, i.e., people would by TRANSceivers rather than REceivers, and they would interact with each other across these media. Didn't happen. Most people are perfectly happy to CONSUME these media. Once we get past the most educated and motivated 10% of our society, is this the future of the Internet? I don't know. My crystal ball gives out at that point.