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Raven Industries Inc. Message Board

  • algo41 algo41 May 19, 2006 10:36 AM Flag

    corrections

    They are NOT expecting eps in 2nd qtr to equal 1st qtr., but to show same quarter over quarter growth as in 1st qtr. (i.e. compared to last year). It was confusing, Moquist was not at his best, but someone asked for that clarification. They are optimistic for 2nd half, but how do they know that ag market will turn- I guess because it is logical.
    Parachute contract is not expected to earn any revenue till either very end of year, or next fiscal year. They then expect add on's for future years.
    Getting to CC is annoying: hit financials, wait till scrolling java applet starts working, then click as CC announcement goes by.
    Maybe skip will go to annual meeting now, or at least if RAVN drops some more.

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    • Since there are some apparent bibliophiles here, you may want to check out "Life 2.0" by Rich Karlgaard. The book is a great read on why the midwest is a great place to be for the next 20 years. I have no bias in saying this, as I live in the southwest and am nowhere near South Dakota.

    • Righto. I had the third copy sitting on my desk right next to the keyboard and still got it wrong. Must have lost it all together. Thanks for fixing my mistakes.

      In Brookings and want to run by Daktronics plant in a few minutes.

      Best, L.

    • I don't know about pheasant, but antelope are all over the place around here.
      Best, L.

    • >>I have several of Christiansen's books on my shelf (I'll also acquire Good to Great for that shelf) but got turned off by the Gorilla Game crowd. Probably a lot of truth in it, but a lot of momentum type guys got involved.<<

      I haven't read "Gorilla Game". Always looked like one step removed from Wade Cook. Don't know how that relates to Christensen, though they might quote him at times.

      Christensen starts with the basic idea that early in a products history (have to define "product" loosely), customer expectations in terms of quality, performance, and functionality are far above what can be delivered. However, advancements usually proceed far more rapidly than expectations rise, and sooner or late products can be delivered that exceed customer demands. Of course, you can only charge premium prices when you (or your competitors) can't meet demand.

      That might not seem like much of a revelation, but that simple dynamic can rip companies apart and turn markets on their ear. How that plays out, as well as strategies that work and don't work, are the main thrust of his books.

      >>Someone asked some financial advice so I reread my 1978 copy of "The Only Investment Guide You'll Ever Need"-Malkiel, and found it so good that I ordered 3 copies in the new and updated version.<<

      Not to cast aspersions on your librarian, but Andy Tobias was the author. Malkiel was the "Random Walk" guy. I'd heard Malkiel spent the last several years backpedalling, but his book still sells well.

    • convince them to have the annual meeting during pheasant season and I'll make it out!

    • Love your pointy chin, pointy nose and crinkles around one eye. Is that Machiavellian or do I have the wrong guy? What was the Russian guy who misled innocents? How about the fellow with his flute leading the little children--can't remember his name.

      I have several of Christiansen's books on my shelf (I'll also acquire Good to Great for that shelf) but got turned off by the Gorilla Game crowd. Probably a lot of truth in it, but a lot of momentum type guys got involved.

      Someone asked some financial advice so I reread my 1978 copy of "The Only Investment Guide You'll Ever Need"-Malkiel, and found it so good that I ordered 3 copies in the new and updated version. And promptly read and annotated it for my friends (most of them) who need his wisdom. So I'll order my next set along with "Good to Great".

      I'm about half packed for the trip to Sioux Falls. Could get in the car or could take a nap instead. But the Bucking Horse Sale is over, my taxes are paid, and my feet are itchy. Dawg sure wants to go. He always does and usually manages to convince me in the end. I do wish we had a bunch of investors who would show up for the meeting and could make a tour or two worthwhile, but I've only run across one or two others at a couple of meetings. Maybe I can dream up some good questions for this one. Or you could send me some to ask. Awfully nice to have 3 of our posters tell me they appreciate my talk and reports--and that may be enough to get me going one more time.

      Regards, L.

    • You are correct to assume that my interest is heightened at a price of $30 vs one over $40. Nothing for me when the price is that high except some sales. I actually did pick up a partial lot this morning at $29.80. But I don't think that is a particularly smart point to buy--I just needed to start someplace and if I squint and bend over and view from 30 feet I can almost make the PE get down to 20 and at least that price is below the 200 day moving average. Fortunately there are many more people who seem to think the price deserves to be much higher. At least they think that while most others posting seem to think that a PE of 30 is OK.

      But they are so fickle. One day they talk like $40 is reasonable and a week later they think $29 is correct. My opinion does not change so easily. Of course it is not always the same people who make up the mood of the conversation. Some days the optimists talk and other days the pessamists talk. I try to fit in between (gg). Along with Skunky. I did get a library copy of "Good to Great". Thanks for the heads up. Excellent points and I agree that Moquist seems to display several of the characteristics which the study's investigators found valuable. Good book.

      I have been expecting a sudden drop for a long time and it is not based on anything Raven did or did not do. It is all about the exuberance or lack thereof as expressed on this board and elsewhere.

      I'll see how I feel Sunday and begin driving if I feel wanderlust coming on. I would like to ask Moquist if he has a view of what his role should be in directorships. I see the retiring chairman of XEL is getting compensated well over $10mm. Was it $18 total? Silliness. For a regulated utility? Moquist contributes far more to his company IMO.

      Best, L.

    • this one will settle arount 25-27 for a few months. It is hard to grow grow forever...... needs a shot of viagra perhaps

 
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