Ack, this is a major gamble and one that doesn't need to be played yet
Between now and q1 with few potential positive catalysts this is a poor value play. If the market pulls back, this breaks support, and being this close to a dollar, just what you folks need is a possible delisting notice. Scary charts, i wouldn't short either, but between insider selling, and a sad market beta- 52 week low while market is at 4 year high, i assume that folks holding this are the same ones that enjoy cliff diving and base jumping, adrenaline junkies. Read tape and pay attention to the court case, but in the meantimewhen insiders are dumping. why play in traffic?
I hold no shares nor shorts, nor plan on buying any of this super dog, and expect major fallout from even here, "bargain basement" pricing in the sub $1 range if fiscal cliff, europe concerns weigh. Money better played elsewhere with shorts looking able to cover on the trickle with zero buy side conviction even on big dow days. Duck and or cover.
"Scary charts, i wouldn't short either, but between insider selling, and a sad market beta- 52 week low while market is at 4 year high,"
How do you know of the insider selling? Are you looking at yahoo site or some other?
I am not really speaking of recent insider selling, but management gave a heads up a while back. Lots of places to view insider buying and selling. They also have bought shares north of here too more recently, but not much of a catalyst for a price pop that holds water, right? it is much less the basis of my argument than weak short term beta. I am much more concerned with short term buying trends, and if this goes down on up days, and gets sucked out on down days, my mind is made up that it won't be institutionally defended. So far have i been wrong? We piggyback off of the big boys' trades, right?
Fda killing them, and a slide below $1.00 is never a good thing. Too much short term downside. Buy and hold all you want, but no one can spot a floor on a 52 week low slide. Get out your fibs calculator? Pass.
That said, from wherever it is, if delaware affirms previous decision it could double, i just want to see where this one will be defended before saying go, i see no interest and no defense here, no matter how cheap it is getting. And consider what the business is, kind of silly, IMO. Would have been great to own when people were getting white powder in the mail, but this is Bush era scare stock with the old legal bleed, entire fate of the company riding on a court decision... Finding something that will play this week instead of defending an argument that is clear to be holding up, and not because little old me said not to buy it. I have maybe 2 twitter followers and everyone on here just wants to argue. also, shorting it seems like playing in traffic too, wait until January, maybe the market will pull back and you will have a better shot at taking 20% to 100%, but if it loses 20-30% in the meantime you are going to freak out, if they go sub 1 then everyone is going to get real impatient and dump down, and then this becomes another peix, urre, ffn. Something tells me if you wait it could be a stem or prkr from delisting notice territory, those make your year.
Well, you could really do well in pip, not many appeals are overturned, but in the shortrun, your pop could come from sub $1 pricing, and that means wait for a better deal. When my money plays better somewhere else, i take it there. Plenty of time to refactor. Dump it and return if you want to make the play, FDA stability on anthrax measure is the next blip on the radar, but the time cost of money is as important a factor as any.