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Anworth Mortgage Asset Corporation Message Board

  • Kona_Kala Kona_Kala Oct 9, 2002 11:18 PM Flag

    Opinions of veteran ....

    ...investors sought.....both REITS and standard stocks. You have heard all the old cliches; Wall St climbs on a wall of worry...there has to be a final capitulation, etc...etc (there's one to fit every situation). so....I just finished reading Erlanger's comments(he taught Lynch). they are not pretty. Such things as "we are near"..."when every one is done puking"...and then he caps it with one caveat; "It would be just like the market to fail to give traders what they are looking for"...heh, true. I give a slice of investment knowledge to TA...but only a thin slice. It is still, I believe, a part of the pie. Guys like Calandra are hawking total destruction (is he really knowledgeable in these thing or just a sensationlist coulmnist?) I read a scary scenario,,,,,where the true bear seeks out and destroys all securities....the defensive, the small investors are then chased into bonds...and, so goes the story, the slaughter makes it's final wipe out. What are your opinions on this ladies & gentlemen. do you think our REITS will withstand the big bad wolf or???? .....KK

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      Look at this post you sound like you just got out of the Hitler youth.
      There is little difference between the extream right and the extream left. You have inculcated someone elses ideas and use them as your own. Can anyone say brainwash?

    • <<What are your opinions on this ladies & gentlemen. do you think our REITS will withstand the big bad wolf or???? .....KK >>

      what do you mean 'withstand' ?... if its 'survive' then my answer is of course they will ..........

      i will bet that AXM aside (they likely cut dividend in 4th quarter (Q1 2003 for sure)) , you see ANH and most other REITs maintain their dividends the next 2 quarters and yields of 13-19% will garner increasing attention as can be seen from Lehman initiating coverage of AHR with an 'OVERWEIGHT' recommendation ......

      and you likely see huge spike in short interest in sector once again come 10/15 announcement of that data ....................

    • reits paying 20% dividend will survive.contrary to popular opinion,there is not a housing real estate never goes down in value.housing slows but never really stops,population growth alone keeps upward pressure on real estate.

    • Who can tell? Your metaphor reminds me of the story we heard as children about the boy who cried wolf, and everyone would run to help and he would laugh! After doing this several times no one came to his rescue when the real wolf came on the scene and he was eaten by the wolf!!
      Well several analyst have been crying wolf as you have pointed out, but this wolf is eating about 7% or more each week as the market declines almost every session. Yet there are other analyst saying that this is not really the wolf, the wolf is yet to come and when he does there will be blood in the streets--whatever that means!

      There was an incident that happened in the civil war during the siege of vicksburg that might be a classic example of the present market and investor sentiment.

      As the north pushed the defenses back more and more toward vicksburg,(Dow and naz and S@P making new lows) the citizens dug holes and cave and supplied them for the siege (investors moving into pm's and larger cash positions etc)--Finally the inevitable happened and the siege guns began to fire on vicks burg and all citizens that were not vital to defense went into the saftey of their holes and caves-(t-bills and bonds cash etc) for about 10 days--then some came out as there was a need to sell suppies to all in the caves--within 2 weeks citizens were going back to church as there was no shelling on sunday morning--within 3 weeks the schools were opened back up and business as usual even with the occasional shelling.
      That describes a large portion of investors in this ugly market coming out now and then to buy,and more and more willing to take the risk even when the market is under siege---by the way Vicksburg finally surrendered (capitulaed) and then the war was over!! regards---Br

      • 2 Replies to bearbitme
      • Are you guys suggesting a soup line scenerio.I can rember my father telling me that during the"great depression" he went to the bank to get his money. he got $.20 on the dollar and a promissory note. The note turned out to be worthless.It's my understanding from an insurance broker that the so called $100K gaurentee for bank deposits can be only a promissory note to pay over say 20 years with a small lump sum up front.If this is the case, what's really changed.I think the more "fear" that is orchastrated, the greater chance we have of "picking s**t with the chickens"

      • Liked your analogy...but don't get me started on the Civil War. I thought it the most ignorant, shameless, tradedy that ever struck America. Ignorance being the Academy trained officers that did not know what a simple maneuver, "flanking" was(or didn't care glory)... Ignorance in sending men shoulder to shoulder into grapeshot....taking a hill or bridge because simply, it was there. But anyway...getting back to the didn't venture an opinion on REITS...:^).....KK

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