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Rentech Nitrogen Partners, L.P. Message Board

  • radass_dude radass_dude Jan 22, 2013 4:02 AM Flag

    Bond Market Bubble???

    There's been some possibilities that the market in treasuries has gotten overbought and overpriced and we're in for huge bubble collapse. If this happens, this could be big.

    I think commodity businesses like fertilizer and natural gas could be some protection from any collapse in the bond market caused by possibly higher inflation and interest rates at this point of time.

    How much does anyone think the fallout would be from a possible collapse in the bond market concerning RNF and other similar enterprises??

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    • The shine is certainly off the bond market with future fears of inflation, but i don't see that being a concern in the near future. We had a good run (30 years) with bonds.

      Sentiment: Buy

    • IMHO higher interest rates would be detrimental to RNF. RNF is being bot as an income replacement at current yield of over 7% ($3.27 distribution/ $44.85 sp). As interest rates go up the demand for RNF will decrease and the SP will probable decrease. In addition, RNF now has a substantial amount of variable debt. While I expect that most of it is hedged, it never seems that the hedges work to eliminate all of the interest rate increase. An increase in interest expense reduces distributable income and would cause a reduction in SP.
      Farmland, grain prices and fertilizer prices are ahead of the curve in regards to inflation. RNF's input inflation (NG, labor, supplies, etc.) would probably exceed its output inflation (fertilizer). This would reduce distributable income and therefore SP.

      • 1 Reply to iowabeancounter
      • I have the same kind of sentiment. RNF does good job hedging natural gas costs down the road, but "hyperinflation" may put a crimp in it. The input inflation may be big enough to even reduce the market value of RNF significantly.

        But like gdurawa, I think a bond market collapse would not happen at least in the first half of this year. With the need of more fertilizer and alternative fuels like DEFs foreseen in the future because of food demand, high energy prices, and another dry summer, we could have a good run this year.

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