I am so disappointed in RNF at this point. I thought i had a long term investment where I got in early enough to get good capital gain and yield going forward. My issue with RNF is that just months ago they were saying distribution of $3.30, but now they are saying $2.60. How can I believe any statements from management now? I think they have known, or should have known, about any re-working of the Illinois plant and it's potential impact on distributions long ago, and really it should have been on the table in the IPO prospectus. This plant has an existing operating history. it is not guess work on their part.
In my opinion for a brand new MLP to be adjusting guidance downward this soon after the IPO either shows deception or incompetence, or a combination of both. I have a good capital gain in my position that amounts to multiples of the current annual distribution guidance. I am leaving with my capital gain and hope to catch RNF lower. When a new issues starts lowering guidance just a few quarters out of the IPO gate that means trouble to me, and increased risk. In my opinion fair value is more like a 9 - 10% yield when a company starts out like this.
Actually last years distribution for 2012 was guided for 3.30 and they would have hit that target if it werent for unshceduled downtime at the illinois plant in Q4 of 2012. the uprades for 2013 have been on all their plans and projections for the past few quaters so you cant say you didnt know about them. the only chage was the planed upgrade for the pasadena plant was moved up from 2014 to 2013. I really like that idea i would rather have one rough year and get all the upgrades done at once then to drag it out. I have been over the calls and transcripts for all of 2012 and anyone who claims this wasnt forecasted wasnt paying attention.