Harry has posted a Charts of the Day video on RNF at TheTechTrader site noting: Rentech Nitrogen Partners, L.P. (RNF) had an ugly day on Wednesday. Going back, when it rolled over in February and formed a bear wedge, we put a short on it and said that when it spiked down to around 31, it was a successful swing trade. It made a nominal low, ran up to the declining-channel top, rolled over, formed a wedge, and now it’s come down again. Watch the level down around 29.90-30. If it takes that out, it could be going down to at least 27, maybe 25, quickly.
OOOOOO... 25.00 per share. And... gasp.... quickly. SCARY!
I suppose Harry is looking for liquidity to cover into.
We're headed toward the end of Q2, the strongest quarter annualy, followed by Q3 which is also strong. Come the end of June, management may have enough of a clear picture through the end of the year to raise or reiterate guidance...perhaps around the upcoming Credit Suisse MLP conference at the end of the month. There is 2.10 remaining in the guided distribution for 2013 which is less of a distribution than would be availible were there no bi-annual plant turnaround plus the final build process of the Ammonia expansion project at East Dubuque and AS expansion project for Pasadena. As we move into autumn, they will get a better picture on the 2014 market through pre-sales and n.gas lock-ins. 2014 will see the effect of the plant expansions, refinancing savings, and no bi-annual turnaround at east dubuqe. This may result in a 2014 distribution above 4 dollars.
Technical traders like to try to make the tail wag the dog. If some newsletter/blogger/charter hack wants to get his disciple technical traders to sell and sell short RNF down to 25, for goodness sake, get on with it, go ahead and try to pick up quarters in front of a steam roller. At 27 or 25, RNF will be an amazing deal for both 2013's remaining distribution and for the chance that 2014 will come in as hoped for. I'm pretty sure that 2.60 for 3qs of 2013 and 1q of 2014 is a conservative distribution estimate for 1 year forward, so RNF would have a +10% yield at 25.00 and +9.6% at 27.
Totally agree with your write up, RNF going to 40 in next 12 months as market realizes the expansion will lead to even bigger distributions in 2014. The chartist is a quack trying to cause people to sell, i'd put him on ignore!