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Rentech Nitrogen Partners, L.P. Message Board

  • elahens@gmail.com elahens Aug 14, 2013 12:21 PM Flag

    Fertilizer price trends

    Progressive Farmer articletoday:
    Fertilizer Prices Tumble Again
    Russ Quinn DTN Staff Reporter
    Bio | Email
    Tue Aug 13, 2013 02:16 PM CDT

    (Page 1 of 3)

    OMAHA (DTN) -- Retail fertilizer prices continued their free-fall this week, according to DTN's most recent nationwide survey. Like last week, more than half of the eight major fertilizers registered substantial price drops.
    NH3 tumbled an average of more than $100/ton in the last month, the sharpest drop since 2008.

    Once again the nitrogen fertilizers lost the most. Anhydrous was down 11% compared to first week of July and had an average price of $700/ton. Urea declined 7% from last month and had an average price of $499/ton.

    The rapid drop in nitrogen prices has been all within the last month. Anhydrous lost over $100/ton in this time. While a considerable adjustment, it is not the largest one-month decrease ever in our database. From November to December 2008, anhydrous dropped more than $300/ton.

    Urea has lost nearly $50/ton in a month. Urea's average price sits under $500/ton for the first time since the third week of May 2011. The average price then was at $493/ton.

    The UAN solutions were also lower. The liquid nitrogen fertilizers fell 5% from a month earlier with UAN28 having an average price of $361/ton and UAN32 $413/ton.

    The remaining fertilizer to have noteworthy price drop was MAP. The phosphorus fertilizer fell 5% compared to last month and had an average price of $606/ton.

    Three fertilizers were also lower but these moves were minor. DAP had average price of $570/ton, potash $555/ton and 10-34-0 $585/ton.

    On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.54/lb.N, anhydrous $0.43/lb.N, UAN28 $0.64/lb.N and UAN32 $0.64/lb.N......

    ==============================================================

    Sentiment: Sell

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    • elahens@gmail.com elahens Aug 26, 2013 10:44 PM Flag

      More comprehensive price trends, across many international and local souces.

      SEARCH DTN article

      ;
      Domestic Wholesale Fertilizer Prices Seen Moving Lower in Short Term
      Ken Johnson DTN Fertilizer Columnist
      Bio
      Mon Aug 26, 2013 10:17 AM CDT
      Print Email
      (Page 1 of 2)

      AMMONIA

    • From the new investor presentation:

      Prices in the Mid-Corn Belt are higher than other regions due to cost of freight for competitors that produce outside the market
      • Freight costs from Gulf Coast into Mid Corn Belt typically $80 - $120 / ton for ammonia and $35 - $50 / ton for UAN
      • Logistical advantage in serving customers during short, weather-dependent application windows
      because of the location of the facility
      • 2 potential ammonia application seasons (spring and fall) in Mid Corn Belt when nitrogen sells for a premium

    • NW_GR210
      Des Moines, IA Tue, Aug 13, 2013 USDA Market News

      Iowa Production Cost Report (Bi-weekly)

      Production costs items state wide: cash prices bulk, FOB distributor,
      per ton unless otherwise stated. Fertilizer in granular form unless noted.

      Product Offer Average Change
      Anhydrous ammonia 674.00-885.00 779.50 DN 40.50

      Urea 46-0-0 NA NA NA

      Liquid Nitrogen 28% spread 384.00-405.00 394.50 UNCH
      32% spread 359.00-438.00 398.50 DN 1.00

      Lime (Applied) NA NA NA

      DAP(Diammonium Phosphate 18%N 46%P) NA NA NA

      MAP (Monoammonium Phosphate 11%N 52%P) 621.00-690.00 655.50 UP 40.50

      Potash (Red) (0-0-60) 548.00-615.00 581.50 UP 36.50

      Potash (White) (0-0-62) NA NA NA

      Propane (LP Gas) per gal

      • 1 Reply to bunniesfriends
      • GX_GR210
        Springfield, IL Thu, Aug 15, 2013 USDA-IL Dept of Ag Market News

        Illinois Production Cost Report (Bi-weekly)

        Production costs items state wide: cash prices bulk, FOB distributor,
        per ton unless otherwise stated. Fertilizer in granular form unless noted.

        Product Offer Average **Change
        Anhydrous ammonia 665.00-725.00 695.00 DN 98.14

        Urea 46-0-0 405.00-505.00 470.00 DN 17.14

        Liquid Nitrogen 28% spread 290.00-365.00 320.83 DN 38.98

        DAP(Diammonium Phosphate 18%N 46%P) 510.00-560.00 535.00 DN 23.17

        MAP (Monoammonium Phosphate 11%N 52%P) 530.00-590.00 559.00 DN 3.00

        Potash (Potassium) 460.00-535.00 501.67 DN 38.96

        Farm Diesel Fuel per gal

    • Note that your DTN article is based on a nationwide survey, not IL or IA prices.

    • 2factors in RNF's favor as prices come down. The East Dubuque plant location allows farmers to save on the significant transpo costs from the cheaper Gulf fertilizer sources, and they can also get near immediate product close by if they wait until closer to application time.

    • elahens@gmail.com elahens Aug 14, 2013 12:53 PM Flag

      The challenge for RNP is not just the lower prices, but the farmers switching between the more expensive nitro fertilizer to comparatively cheaper UAN...

      Second, the timing of the purchases:
      o when prices are heading down, the farmers wait to actually buy. Specially this year with the futurres corn prices being lower, they expect the fertilizer for next year to be lower as well.

      "" In a recent post on the Farmdoc Daily website from the University of Illinois, Gary Schnitkey examined the retail fertilizer price moves. The farm management extension specialist cited two reasons for lower fertilizer prices -- more anhydrous being produced globally and the breakup of the Russian potash cartel.

      "Increases in ammonia capacity reduce manufacturing constraints, potentially leading to lower nitrogen fertilizer prices," Schnitkey wrote. "The breakup of this cartel likely leads to lower potash prices."

      Schnitkey said he believes large declines in fertilizer costs are possible for the 2014 crop. He estimated costs could be in the $125 to $150 per acre range for next year's crop, after reaching $200 per acre in 2012.

    • Thx for the numbers. Surprised that potash is not down farther given the announcement of the cartel disbanding, that crushed the stock prices of the producers.

      Sentiment: Buy

 
RNF
16.33-0.22(-1.33%)Jul 9 4:02 PMEDT

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