With the earnings call about 1 week out and no distribution announcement, I wonder if they are not going to pay a dividend at all this quarter and choose to replenish their capital accounts.
UAN -reported and slashed their distribution to 60% of last years. If that reflective of pricing pressure(lower selling prices) and their input prices did not change much. The increased input prices for RNF are up a lot and selling prices down expect distribution in range of 15-25 cents only. 2nd quarter should be better. 2 dollars for the year, looks tough. JMHO
I rand the numbers twice based on the lock ins they posted at their year end earning. I came to the same conclusion of 20 to 25 cents for distribution. Some of that depends on if they hold back some to rebuild working capital as they suggested they might. I see a lot of people talking about nat gas but they already locked in 30% of their nat gas commitments for this year. It give them time to wait for nat gas to come down after such a cold winter. I do think $2.00 is very easy for them since they managed 1.67 in distribution last year. Last year was just a complete nightmare. Fertilizer prices will be lower for spring then last year but higher for fall.
did you even do the math on this? they will consume 1.3 MMBTU in Q1 of nat gas. doing the comparison from last years to this add about 1.5 mil to cost which is .03 cents per share. Anyone who is using the nat gas excuse for being negative the stock is out of their mind. Nat gas will go lower going into the summer which will allow them to lock in better prices when they have already consumed the 3.6 MMBTU they have locked in now.
But nobody trusts management. I know we will get a look after 1st qtr #s announcement in a couple months. Still think RTK better value( now that Blackstone has an input) for the next couple years.
Dislike for this CEO has manifested itself even within his immediately family___ I'm told that they had to tie a pork chop around his neck just to get the family dog to play with him...