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EnerNOC, Inc. Message Board

  • lesserfool75 lesserfool75 Dec 4, 2013 8:54 PM Flag

    missing message

    Someone at Yahoo must think I'm a spammer. Any hints on posting links to outside content?

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    • I read your message before they deleted it. Thank you.

      It led me to the PJM web-site -- "Documents" section, where I read the proposed Tarriff revision issued by PJM on November 29 as you said. I was not encouraged.

      In the Baird Conference, Healy clearly made reference to PJM's (and other Utilities) seeing themselves as losers in the capacity markets game. He said it isn't going to go away and needs to be worked through.
      He went on to say that PJM is a decreasing piece of the mix, although still very significant.

      It's that last part - how significant they are -- combined with everything else on ENOC's plate being developmental, and not generating significant revenue or profits NOW, that was a negative in a generally positive, even breakout situation.

      We really need to understand what the impact will of PJM's proposal to "limit the amount of Demand Response Capacity imported into their system" will be on ENOC's earnings.

      And this was all within the context of 2014 consensus EPS growing only 9.6% from .73 to .80, with the stock price hovering at 17 (recently), a forward multiple of over 21. Uh oh.

      I went to the options pain website. Put volume is very high, and this period between November and February earnings is typically way down. Max pain is $15.00 for the December 21st expiration.

      Add on top of all of this, the GDP read this morning of 3.6% and the ADP report Tuesday which blew off the doors on job growth. Tomorow's November jobs report, if strong, will throw the 10-year up again, and it jumped already this morning to 2.87%, far above teh 2.85% trigger the pundits have been fearing. Down futures this morning drive this home.
      I've never been a cheerleader for this or any stock. I believe in ENOC, but I am also aware that particularly in small caps, things change quickly. The proposed tarriff revision is concerning, we need to understand the impact, and timing/market conditions right now are not positive.

      • 1 Reply to jpmarketer
      • hello, thank you for your comments. i have also studied the revisions. have you heard the comments from the last conference from CS that took place on tuesday. to paraphrase what CEO said:
        "misinterpreted by lot of marketplace, PJM concerned getting too much DR limited in number of months that DR is dispatched during summer months, try to shift product mix to have DR providers bid more resources during the rest of year (apart from summer). market misinterpreted it that they try to put CAP on Demand Resources. PJM had only 36% support for this filling (generally supposed to get 2/3 support from stakeholders; ENOC didn't support it along with generators, other resources, state).
        VERDICT: still need FERC approval; weak support; ENOC well positioned

        I know he is not gonna shoot his own horse, but's unfortunate that they just killed the momentum which i think the stock had, but we have to take things like they are. especially on this stock. I have been through the last PJM vs. ENOC fight so im fully aware that the price action can get quite ugly from nowhere.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

4.33+0.07(+1.64%)Nov 27 1:00 PMEST