GAAP Earnings this quarter -.96 vs. -1.24 analyst consensus, good
GAAP Earnings next quarter 3.27 - 3.33 vs. 3.50, bad. Revenue also on target, possibly light at 313-323, vs estimate of 318.04.
Guidance for full year earnings is .47-.55 which is higher than the .46 consensus, good.
Sales volume guidance for full year is 450-465 vs. estimate of 457.75, eh.
There are no notable updates on international (no mention I saw in a quick scan), and very milktoast commentary in initial PR. No disasters, relatively on target, but whole thing seems blah, milktoast. No disasters but no catalysts, is initial impression.
I basically agree with your analysis. I'm long the stock.
But to me the relevant thing is the full year GAAP EPS guidance ($0.47 - $0.55) which was raised from prior guidance of $0.40 - $0.50 given last quarter. The new range is also clearly above the $0.46 consensus. This means full year EPS ests are almost certainly going up and this will be caught by all the hedge funds who look look at estimate trends.
Of course, ENOC management has developed a habit of being all po-faced on their conference calls with pessimistic commentary, so we'll just have to wait until tomorrow to see where it shakes out.
This stock was at $24/share just four months ago. Technically, it just withstood a Death Cross in early July when the 50 day went down through the 200. Stock is actually up a little since then. If management doesn't screw things up with their commentary, it's not unreasonable to think the stock could ride some mo back into the low $20s over the next few months.