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Simulations Plus, Inc. Message Board

  • dickmilde dickmilde Apr 11, 2008 6:47 AM Flag

    Share price weakness on Q2 results?

    With the large order moved from Q2 to Q1 I expect that there is a good chance that Q2 may come in slightly below Q2 of last year. SLP is still a very small company and a large order will result in a "lumpy" sales pattern,which in turn may give the appearance of declining revenue. Following is the history of sales that indicates a very healthy upward trend is in place:

    1995 2.9 M
    1996 2.6 M
    1997 2.5 M
    1998 2.6 M
    1999 3.5 M
    2000 3.6 M
    2001 3.9 M
    2002 4.4 M
    2003 5.5 M
    2004 5.2 M
    2005 4.8 M
    2006 5.9 M
    2007 8.9 M
    2008E 11.8 M
    2009E 15.3 M

    If the stock is weak after the Q2 announcement take a close look at any forward statements... This may an opportunity to get some attractively priced shares.

    Dick Milde

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    • I think you're be surprised how little effect it has and how little it helps share price

    • I think we will be surprised as to the amount of revenue WordsPlus contributes to this quarter and quarters going forward...

    • Creed
      I think the message was that they had recovered their cash in the first year and that the cash they used in the acquisitions was about a million. If that's the case I wouldn't expect them to jump to 3 million in ClassPharmer sales that fast. More likely it is increased sales across all products. The subsidiary is not helping much so it should be almost all due to pharmaceutical business growth.

    • Ace,

      By following the timeline, details of the transaction and statements made by CEO in CCs. SLP purchased Sage in Aug. '05 for an undisclosed amount and Bioreason in Nov. '05 for 788k and acquired 30 accounts. CEO stated on Q4 CC that SLP *earned* back its investment and some on those investments in a little over a year. I assume by saying they "earned back" he was referring to net income. Looking at the growth in revs and net income since the Bioreason acquisition and taking reasonable margins into account, I think it's fair to assume the vast majority of the growth came from ClassPharmer. Maybe not all, don't take things so literally, but w/o Bioreason you have a much different growth scenario over the past two years, IMO.

      Good luck!

    • What's this??? Dick Milde saying SLP might miss estimates and incur price weakness as a result? Blue blazes Batman! What next? He admits he sold shares when he was pumping it in the 8's, 7's, 6's.........? Stay tuned for more of this astonishing development next week. Same Bat time, same Bat channel.

      Good luck!

    • What a load of crap you just dropped on us Dickey Boy.

      Huge mountain to climb in 2nd half sales - they will never make their stated guidance of 12mm in sales. Taking you assumption of moderately lower sales in q208 vs comp. qtr. they will need approx. $7.5mm in second half to reach company guidance. Back end loaded and no way they can achieve that sales number. Growth has slowed - they will be lucky to show 10-15% growth y-o-y. Fairly priced - stock will trade in narrow range. Management will really be putting their heads and #$%$ on the chopping block if they don't lower guidance. If they don't, no one with any common sense will believe them anyway. Since you have the ear of management, tell us Dick how you think they can do 3.7mm in 3Q and 4Q organically.

 
SLP
6.49+0.17(+2.69%)Jul 30 4:00 PMEDT