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Simulations Plus, Inc. Message Board

  • creedheed creedheed Jan 15, 2009 8:48 AM Flag

    Q1 '09

    The good news: I'll be the first to admit Q1 was better than I was expecting. It was the first Q since I came on this board that the company met estimates. It's the first positive sign I've seen.

    The bad news: The pharma side is still contracting. I'm sure most of you, save the blind Messiah and his boys Uday and Qusay, would agree the reason you are investing in SLP is the "potential" of the pharma side of the business. For whatever reason, the economy being one, pharma once again contracted. IMO, there will be no meaningful, sustainable price appreciation w/o growth from the pharma side. In addition, w/o 2010 guidance and assuming '09 growth meets estimates, the stock is just about fully priced at this level. Sure it can pop higher but I would still consider the downside risk from here much greater than the upside given the status quo.

    And no, the good news does not alter my opinion that SLP is just another ordinary boom/bust small cap and is not the "next great growth company" that the permas continue to theorize it to be.

    Just calling it like I see as always in spite of the cloud of paranoia that engulfs the permas.

    2x cash = $0.65!!!

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    • Creed, your 'perma' outlook is just as bad as Mr. Milde's is.
      Any company that can still maintain positive growth in this kind of environment will prove to be stellar when the rebound eventually occurs. Cash will become increasingly worthless going forward, but is invaluable right now. I'm confident that the company will put it to good use very soon. They have been very prudent so far and have done good things for their shareholders in general(Although I agree that the split was poor judgement and a sign to sell, the opposite holds true now). Please tell me where these better investments you propose exist where I can buy growth at 2x cash. BTW, new cash level is $6.8M, so you need to adjust your offer to .80. And then, next year you can adjust to .91, assuming there is no additional growth from this level.
      This stock would still be undervalued at $1.50 or even $2. I'd probably liquidate if it were to top $3, but then it wouldn't be doing so without a reason, so you need to constantly re-evaluate your values...

      You are looking at this all wrong. This company obviously does have something of value besides it's cash. It's an amazing opportunity to be able to buy currently at $1.

    • one or more acquisitions in the coming months

      • 1 Reply to garmingchan
      • dwheeker Jan 15, 2009 10:18 AM Flag

        I agree with you Creed. The leak is stable right now, but the challenges are still great indeed.

        Price seems to be fairly prices. No one wants to sell out at lower than this, however the bid isnt at anything more that $1.04, so I dont see anyone grabbing it up either.

        My market timers, seem to have a descent 2 month upside from end of last year which seems to be unfolding right... 0.91- high of 1.17. Maybe we could see a tick higher, but nothing to write home about.

        My indicators are also bearish however for the year, so expect this short move to be just that, and its possible to move below a buck again and test the lows before finding a base.

        Either way, I dont see a ton here to go ga-ga about...even if the pushers are saying "congratulate the team"....REALLY PEOPLE!

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