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Tractor Supply Company Message Board

  • wbuffettman wbuffettman Aug 29, 2003 12:52 PM Flag

    Retail

    As a group is very expensive, probably the most expensive I can ever remember. This seems strange when one considers that we just went through the first recession on record where consumer debt increased. Thank you Alan G. Typically the consumer pays down debt during recessionary periods, leading to a pent-up spending demand when we emerge from recession. This time the consumer never slowed spending, and actually increased debt. Furthermore, cash outs of home equity also supported spending. Auto companies offering zero financing also contributed to the spending binge. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize that this will not continue (at least not at the current rate). So the consumer is spent up, not pent up. I still look at trailing earnings and believe me retail is not cheap. Sure there is momentum due to the govt mailing out checks. This is a one time event. What happens next? That is how one makes money in the market, by looking at the future and not the past. I think the risk/reward in retail is quite unattractive--stocks way up--forward demand--tepid at best.

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