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TransAtlantic Petroleum Ltd. Message Board

  • paulthomaskingsley paulthomaskingsley May 29, 2011 5:51 AM Flag

    True value of TAT is ??

    - Market valued Transatlantic Petroleum in early 2008 at $13.0M when Malone first bought shares.

    Then TAT acquired:
    - Longe Energy bought for $47.5M
    - Incremental bought for $55M
    - Energy Operations Turkey bought for $8.0M
    - Amity and Petrogas bought from Zorlu for $96.5M
    - Direct Petroleum bought for $29M +$26M (conditional)

    The original value plus purchased value is then $249M

    Assuming, if selling Viking Drilling for $95M (Longe + Rigs and parts from Incremental and Zorlu acquisition)

    Remaining Value is then $154M ($0.44 per share). All cash used and no major value increase has occurred (except acquisitions)

    Profits - To be seen maybe 2012!

    IF the company is stressed, I can imagine SP going below even 44 cents.

    If Viking is sold the concept of vertically integrated is dead and company credibility is gone.

    Beware of potential further plunging share price to come.

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    • I am still waiting on the sideline to understand why it makes sense for TAT to part with the service business now and why TAT should be valued at $2.0 (or higher).

      TAT has NOT made its case regarding the service business and I really did not like the way it was mentioned casually and without any explanation whatsoever.

      Even the Poster Promoters have not attempted to make a positive spin on service business issue.

      Now that the TBHG acquisition is closed and another 18.5M shares been issued, I suppose the recent iron grip and support of the share price above $2 have no reason to be continued any longer. Let’s see.

    • You are mixing up Riata and SD in your analysis. Malone sold controling interest in Riata to Tom Ward who ran the stock to the $50's and then into the ground. Malone got out with all his marbles and you think that wasn't smart? He became a billionaire, kept most of his key holdings that made him rich and you think he can't run a company? Never bet against Malone!

    • Thanks for this posting. It is THE most intelligent post ever posted about this company. This stock is highly speculative and very risky. The company has a very poor track record of drilling even in Selmo. And make no mistake Malone has personally signed off on each and every decision. He is to blame for the failures.

    • Look, It’s obvious that a buyer and a seller have different perspectives otherwise the trade would not occur. I have no investment in TAT anymore, but had a substantial stake for a very long time. I am disappointed in the way things have gone lately and my reason for selling my last holdings recently is purely fundamentals and gut feeling – something that takes time to develop.

      The thing for you new chart traders/ owners to be aware of is:
      1. Will Malone close the Trace Basin gas deal?
      2. Will Malone continue the service business and put in the required funds to keep the business running until they are self funded?

      If it’s a NO to the above – my advice would be to bail out immediately if it is by then not already too late when it’s obvious on the chart…

      Why don’t you think about the investors financing TAT above $2.0 a share and share price of SD at the time of the IPO of $30. Do you think these investors whom committed lots of cash made a LONG TERM AND SOUND investment in Malone et. al. Even ONE year later? - Look at the chart!

      Malone / TAT remind me of a gold company with only gold in the ground and no mine. All story and hopes until the bubble burst.

      I am probably saying this too early for some to believe and take seriously – but be careful and good luck.

      And by the way, I did not say shareholders would make their money back – I said Malone would probably make HIS money back. Big difference!

    • i understand that you sold at 2.03. It must be hard for u to watch sp going up.

      It is true that TAT might not be the best stock to buy, but it is way oversold right now and it will at least get back to 2.50s this coming week.

      • 1 Reply to ericky3802
      • I don’t think so (2.50).Even if it does, I do sleep very well since I believe the risk owning the shares is greater than any potential small gains.

        First, they seem unable to close the deal on Trace Basin Natural Gas.

        Second, they have no plan for financing operations. No matter what they do it’s not very attractive.

        Selling off service business would diminish value of entire land portfolio. Then I would apply 44 cents per share reflecting price paid for the portfolio.

        Keeping service business drains cash and without being self funded yet, there is an immediate problem to be fixed until they are self funded.

        Required Cash can come from Malone lending more money to finance operations or another dilution.

        Neither option is very attractive to Malone or share holders.

        Dilution could be next to impossible if people have lost confidence in TAT.

        I will want and see what they decide to do before getting back in again. I also would like to be 99% sure they will be self funded very soon before owning any shares again.

        Downside Risk should NOT be underestimated.

        I dont think they can close Trace Basin at all. How can you convince anyone to put $100M cash forward if TAT will have no service business to develop the assets.

        Last confrence call was maybe a PANIC call from Malone. He needs to step up to the plate and speak straight about these issues.

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