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TransAtlantic Petroleum Ltd. Message Board

  • sorellemark sorellemark Mar 2, 2012 10:09 AM Flag

    Light Volume ?

    Any ideas on the light volume so far ?

    Thanks--

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    • I am bullish on TAT to bounce back to 1.60 range ... imo.

      Likes to bounce off the 50 day and 200 day.....

      Just my .02 cents

    • Just a bit of speculation, but maybe the oil major who was looking at the Sivas basin are interested in buying us out. However, I don't think that is the case, we will continue to grow albeit at a slow pace right now. As we grow so will our share price.

    • Here's my take on TAT's volume/price since the Viking sale announcement. In fact, I think there's a parallel to what happened to gold a couple days ago. The short term Comex traders knew that the economy was still under pressure, so anticipating another quantitative easing announcement from Bernanke on Wednesday, they started loading the boat with gold futures two or three weeks ago. Instead what they got was acknowledgement from him about the sluggish economy but he was silent on another round of newly minted cash. So, they exited en masse driving the price down over $100 at one point during the session. The long term investors were unfazed and lifted the price back a bit by the end of the day. They saw it as a buying opportunity.

      I think we're witnessing similar phenomena with TAT. A few weeks back on this board someone stated that they thought the sale of Viking was already baked into the cake. I disagreed, but I was wrong. It obviously was priced in the share price. My guess is that the buying and spike in volume we saw last week by institutions was in anticipation of the impending Viking announcement. Like me, they misjudged the degree to which current market cap already reflected the announcement. When the announcement came but failed to ignite the price as anticipated, they exited as fast as they came.

      So the only TAT bulls left already own the stock and aren't selling because they believe that the next catalyst will be earnings. The current lifeless action then is coming from the weak hands who are throwing in the towel with as little conviction as they picked it up in the first place. To one degree or another, all stocks are 'show me' stocks, but TAT is 'show me' on steroids because of perceived past disappointments. Personally, I'm convinced that TAT will be a blockbuster performer, but I also realize it's the kind of stock that tests patience. Until they 'show me' that I've miscalculated... and I truly don't think I have... then I'm long, strong and in very big.

      • 3 Replies to buffettisakeynesian
      • Hello Buffet,

        I read your post summarizing your analysis of TAT and the recent pull back with interest and I was able to extrapolate the following from it:

        1- You are an intellect, sage, and a sincere person.

        2- Your Juxtaposed summation analysis of TAT and Gold was logical and rather interesting. But there's more to it than meets the eye.

        Since you said that you were long and remain bullish on TAT, I would like to throw in my brief comment and prediction about the TP. I believe, TP will be sold within 90-12- days at $3.00/PPS. Look to this announcement to surface shortly after the Viking deal is announced.

        I had a large position in TAT and have reduced it to several thousand shares as of late and have let my $$$ migrate elsewhere.

        So be careful.

        Me



        3-

      • Wednesday, a reported 31 tonne gold sell order on the CME took spot gold prices down from $1,784 to $1,697. Mainly a big order, and many people paniced as gold volatility index GVZ increased from 20.12 to 22.97 that day, it has now fallen back to 18.95.

        Similar case here, lots of sell order on Tuesday morning (as some orders filled at $1.70 or better), as people realized the deal was not final. Then high frequency traders took over, they are notorious for amplifying the market movement to extremes. If you watched the tape, it was very obvious, as each cent moving down in stock price, you would see the bid size had a sudden increase. Unfortunately weak hands kept on rushing out, along with declining smallCap Russell index, which was down 3% for the past week.

        As this stage, people have very very low expectations for the company, and it is up to the company to prove itself as the assets are really undervalued. It takes time for successful people to correct mistakes, and so far MM is fine but just slow. But time is on the long side as MM proves that he will use his own money to help the company to buy time ....

      • Thanks--Texas !

        Great insight I appreciate.

        So how do you see the price action on Monday ? Will it hold 1.30 ?

 
TAT
7.62-0.15(-1.93%)Nov 25 4:01 PMEST

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