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TransAtlantic Petroleum Ltd. Message Board

  • jmk4peace jmk4peace Mar 6, 2012 4:26 AM Flag

    Upside potential from here?

    This message really only goes out to Biotech77030, mbr1613, Buffetsake, nashvegas666, machterberg, and yes, even is_10_nuts, because frankly it is you all along with a few others that I come onto this board for. So if any of you care to respond in your usual manner (I don’t care about grammar, etc.), it is appreciated. I realize there will probably be nonsense from others, but such is the case for this type of open forum.

    There have been recently so many posts only focusing in some way on some chart reading or technical analysis, etc., caring nothing at all whatsoever about the data that supports the value and stock price of this company.

    I use John Carter’s studies on Thinkorswim, and his program clearly shows a consolidation and squeeze building up at these levels, using a 90 day, daily analysis of the price movement.

    There is tons of energy building up in this stock?

    The stock had a major run down last year, justified, due to obvious operation and execution issues – freakishly bottoming out at $.57, in October, a bit over a month before last earnings.
    It then went on an upward trend, for the most part, through earnings, reaching a high shortly after the report/call on November 11th at $1.67.

    So the question really is: How in the name of any actual economic/fundamental analysis (factoring in the macro impact, etc.) is TAT in a worse position now, leading up to this ’11 4Q/year end report/call, than it was before the last in November to justify such a price decline, other than the whims and speculation of short term trading nonsense??? Are we all just slaves to the charts/TA in the short term???!!!

    As Buffetsake makes the point - this is/has become very much a "show me the money" stock – and that is where the fundamentals actually come into play.

    So, is the company worth/deserving of another run up in share price, or is it stuck at these levels or possibly going lower?

    Malone has provided news releases since the last report and properly has hedged, but this much is clear:

    *The purpose of the Viking sale has been accomplished, ASSUMING it is actually consummated – TAT will be debt free, resolve problematic accounting/reporting issues, and have excellent terms going forward with the service business to support all its frontline E & P; yet the stock immediately goes on this ride downward following the news of what appears to be a pretty good deal;

    *There appears to be good production signs coming out of the Thrace basin where they will focus their exploration and production for 2012 – and obviously exploration and production numbers and guidance should/will play a major factor – again, fundamentals - for this report and related share price;

    *Management very much has been re-structured and is very Turkish in key positions, COO, Biz dev; yet Malone is still the big boss as Chairman and CEO, with Finance and Investor Relations right next to him to make sure reporting and material info is correctly reported and in the market;

    *There’s been little mention of what is happening in the SE fields and announcement of possible JV for Frontier regions/central Turkey – these are wild cards it seems now based on the news reports and new releases over the past couple of months. What is happening there and has this and will this affect the pps without other over compensating good news, like what appears to be happening in the Thrace basin, Viking sale/debt free with capital for growth, and re-structured management/operations?

    Any comments from the mentioned targets of this post, or others who are not straight up pumpers, bashers, chart addicts, are appreciated.

    I still gotta believe in this company, and at these levels, how can it not still be a buy leading up to earnings and beyond? . . .

    All the best,

    JMK

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    • And even is_10_nuts disappeared (maybe he and a few are starting to post some messages on the other stocks' boards). Though expect him to show up after the stock is much higher and claim that he bought a lot in the current range ....

    • Wish I could answer your questions. The fundamentals with sale of Viking, if that is concluded, makes TAT near debt free. Big plus! High Euro N/G prices makes them a winner, if Turkey plays is what's been touted. Should we be trading at current s/p? No and yes! Sorry, but it really is show me the money now. Once they show they can deliver, investor confidence will come back and longs will be rewarded. $64 question is when? I believe this next earning report is the key to the value going forward and if they deliver we have a multiple of 2/3x. If not, we sit for another quarter.Don't want to sit and wait, but still a safe play IMO>
      One thing don't care for from management is lack of drilling updates and guidance. But it is what it is! In short, the fundamentals say solid play with little to No debt. We will know the answer to your valid questions next week.GLTU

      • 2 Replies to machterberg1
      • Seems to sum it up.

        Management has given some reasonable guidance about progress and focus on Thrace Basin, though they hedge, "learning curves" etc.

        Also, with continued management shake ups and shifting, that prob has affected news releases to some extent, better to err on the side of caution at this point. Gary Mize must have been over-promising and under-delivering, along with McCann before and Scoot Larsen. I like Malone's aggressiveness in taking charge with that, and I think a Turkish COO with tons of experience in the Thrace Basin can only be a good thing. But reported news has basically been good.

        I really hope the news re. the JV with the major is still happening and that the SE is not going backward.

        If Thrace is growing, as reports this quarter do indicate, SE is holding its own and possibly showing good progress, the JV for Central is still in the works, and Bulgaria frac issues are being dealt with, this all points to pps northward, especially with Viking Sale/debt free/freed up capital and great service terms for TAT going forward.

        Hopefully Q4 report/earnings/call will clarify all to the upside.

        Then it is about playing the dips, or just holding and dealing with the obvious volatility given macro issues and HF trading, etc.

        In the meantime, we are all at the edge of our seats until next Thurs/Fri. . .

        All the best,

        JMK

      • I see we're 'running up' to earnings. Always a good sign.

    • uhhh.000005% chance of reserves declining.

    • Hi there JMK4PEACE,

      I wrote two posts previously but none seem to have received any traction. I am reinstating my prediction and position in TAT. I said earlier that shortly after the VIKING Transaction is consummated, there will be an announcement made about the possible sale of TP. I really believe it.

      Further, we should see an upward movement in the stock price immediately after the V sale consummation. TAT should see an easy $2.00/PPS.....but for those who are quick to unload will give up an additional 45% upside when the announcement of the sale of TP for $3.00/PPS is made.

      So, we will have two options to cash out at.

      Me.

      • 1 Reply to joebernini
      • Joebernini;

        I absolutely disagree with your opinion regarding the sale of TAT for US$3/share. If you recall the history of NMMIII & Riata Energy. Begun by NMMIII in 1985 & divested controlling shares to Tom Ward (co-founder of Chesapeake Energy) in 2006 & 2008, now Sandridge Energy (SD).

        If you have ever started a business, it takes time to develop, and NMMIII has demonstrated patience and will NOT prematurely sell this company at this early stage in development. We are YEARS away from any COMPLETE sale of TAT.

        This company will NOT be up for potential sale for less than it's pre-sale price of Mkt Cap of $5B (~$13.70/share). More likely for pre-sale Mkt Cap of >$10B (>~$25/share), depending on market conditions...elevated pricing of hydrocarbons. This will take MULTIPLE years to achieve.

    • JMK4Peace;

      Thanks for your mention in your MB post.

      I wrote an extensive reply but it, unfortunately, did not post to the TAT MB.

      I am way too frustrated to re-write the post.

      Sorry!!

    • Your points are valid... in the perspective of a fundamentalist. However, you fail to realize in today's trading, we are dealing with high frequency trading machines... machines run by algorithms and logic - no emotions... monitors small discrepancies in every stock movement and sadly wouldn't care about fundamentals. it's stock strategies are most based on historical technical data and would move accordingly in what's imbedded in its memory.

      don't go against the trend. it would go down and buy the lows sell it high... i cannot expound it much.

      regards to all.

    • I have been long quite awhile and right now this stock technicals are breaking one support level after another at fairly above normal volume. Technicals reflect fundamentals and sentiment.

      This Malone guy is suppose to know what he's doing?? I don't see it. Can he even sell the company? Seems like alot of work drilling for gas and oil in remote parts of the world.

    • LOL! Were you crying as you wrote this?

    • JMK..whoever you are... thank you for the time and effort of your post. Fargo Dude.

      • 1 Reply to sasind1
      • Earnings.

        I believe with the sell of Viking and a renewed interest in their core business, TAT has great potential. Very interested about the conf call on the 16th and what they say about boe and earnings. One question I have never been able to answer is what is TATs true potential in boe and profit. Could they have an eps of .25 in a quarter or $1 in a year? If so, this could be an $8-$14 dollar stock. Right now at .01 a share it is just not performing well enough for my liking.

        Still hold with strong buy, especially at todays trading price.



        Good Luck and God Bless...

    • Jimk4peace,

      Like you, I'm much more of a fundamentalist than a technician. There are tons of short term traders out there who live and die by charts and charts alone. Often they don't even know or care what the companies they invest in do. They're strictly momentum players looking for enough volatility in the stocks they buy to make their craft sometimes profitable. To them, the stock market really is a casino. To me, it's an auction. Sometimes you can acquire exceptional value at cut-rate prices relative to actual intrinsic value. TAT, in my opinion, is such a stock, but because in the past management has hit a couple bumps in the road a trading pattern has developed that is very attractive to the "chart" crowd. Some are waiting for a pronounced breakout either above or below the channel, while others are simply trading the swings within the channel.

      Personally, I think technical analysis serves a useful purpose insofar as it can help identify good entry and exit points. To that extent, I use charts myself. But I would never buy a stock that I didn't think had solid fundamental reasons for owning it. Without question, TAT is such a stock and at these prices (thanks to those who lack ownership conviction) it it a compelling buy. But in a macro-sense, it was a compelling buy at $1.60, too, because at the end of the day I believe it will trade at a multiple of these prices.

      So in a nutshell, I think long-term fundamental investors owe short-term momentum traders a debt of gratitude because it's them who create the opportunities for good entry points, like the prices we're seeing now. That's what makes it a horse race...

 
TAT
4.79+0.18(+3.90%)Feb 27 4:01 PMEST

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