I understand KORS is more like RL- but both companies say Europe was not affected- they beat by about 10 cents- stock is up $7
one more dta point pointing to good numbers from VFC- I am absolutely convinced that they will raise guidance for 2012- as cotton prices have literally halved- and the effects will be felt in Q2!
sorry-I did not read your post earlier- please dont buy options like you buy stock- the implied volatility will drop dramatically tomorrow- I doubt the stock will move beyond 160- the straddle is indicating an * dollar move- not that it cant go higher- for you to make any money the stock has to go beyond the 160$ price- I hope you BOT the March 160 calls not feb 160- but please sell as soon as the news hits- this option will lose value fast!
sorry - it is too late now!
They are reporting Nov, Dec, Jan months on this earnings report. Nov and Dec are not usually the coldest months so this should not have any impact on revenue. However January was unusually warm. This may have a slight impact. As for insiders selling, most of the selling is planned way in advance so I wouldn't read too much into it. I know of many companies with high insider selling but yet the share price trading near all time high. LULU is one example.
Warmer weather isn't necessarily a bad thing, unless you are a ski resort.
If your city is buried under four feet of snow, it makes it difficult if not impossible to generate any kind of numbers.
If it's forty or fifty degrees instead of 10, people are still going to buy jackets and sweaters. I'd look at the improved weather as a plus, not a minus.
In order for VFC to maintain this valuation they will need a triple beat- Revenue, Earnings and Guidance.
I took a small short position today anticipating a miss because:
- Too much insider selling in Oct, Nov and Dec.
- As Cramer mentioned the unusually warm weather in the Northeast.
- Northface and Timby have had a great run and I believe they're getting a little stale.
- My kids wanted Northface last year for Christmas, but this Christmas was all about the new Iphone
the logic that people check thet emperature outside to buy Northface- is really stretching reality- people shop months before-in anticpation of winter- they dont wait till the snow is 2ft high in the front yard.
their timberland acquisition has already been accretive- they guided that up to 55(from 45 cents) last quarter.
the question is not whether your kid did not want Northface- it is all about how many Chinese kids were begging for more timberland and 7forallmankindd esigner jeans.
I am absolutely confident their guidance will be strong- because cotton prices have tanked to 84 cents per lb and this goes directly to their bottomline- they bought cotton at $1.16 per lb in the 3rd quarter!
Credit suisse analyst notes in his report that the $8.30 estimate he has for the stock is conservative- I expect 2012 EPS of $8.50- they guided to $8.15- a 20 cent beat would be good enough- they beat by 29 cents last quarter!
RL,KORS,FOSL- all beat expectations and raised guidance- if VF does not have a convince beat the stock should trade at $130- if it is a trifecta- earnings, revenue and guidance- then this stock should not trade below 160$
Obviously I beleive in the latter theory!
Tomorrow- the stock ends above $145!