Omaha_beach6644: Frankly, I have no clue where FORM goes to. However, I with stock at today's close of $21.44, I see a TEV of $470 million. That strikes me as a low price for this business. I estimate 4Q07 EBITDA was $35m or so (haven't dug into Q4 numbers deeply just yet). The interesting number here is: TEV/LQA EBITDA = 3.33x. Isn't FORM supposed to be the market leader for this niche industry?
After a rough quarter and weak guidance for the first half of 2008 nobody expects much from FORM anymore. It's been a tough overall economy, a tough stock market and a bad environment for tech, especially chips. I've got to think that most of the bad news is now priced into this stock. I think that this is still a good company with good future potential but it will be a long road back up in this economy. They have a strong balance sheet so they should be able to weather this downturn. I'm deep in the hole but I'm staying with it because I see the stock way higher a year or two out. I'll see what Q2 looks like, hopefully that will be as bad as it gets. With the weak guidance maybe they will pull off an expectations beat if things just get a little better.
I think the market and the economy is in for a rough ride in the next 1-2 years. Time to hunker down, shop for the bargains and be patient. The big returns in the long run come from purchases during major downturns like this one. The strongest companies will survive and come back quickly during the next economic upturn.