For the last several years revenue for FORM peaked in Q2 and dropped in Q3 and Q4. Will the pattern repeat? I think it is very likely. The last 5 years have also shown another pattern- each peak was lower than the previous peak, each trough was lower than the previous trough. That pattern was broken with the Microprobe acquisition, but if you back out the Microprobe revenue it appears the lower peak, lower trough pattern seems to have continued. In addition Microprobe revenue appears to have peaked in Q4 2012, right after the purchase.
According to Yahoo finance analysts are expecting a 5% revenue increase in Q3. If that does not happen look out below!
I suspect the "expansion of the Singapore" facility was good spin on consolidation of Microprobe's Singapore facility with Formfactor's facility there.
I don't see this growth phase. I listened to Mike Slessor's statements at the recent Citicorp conference, it seemed to me he was very reluctant to make any commitments on a new NAND flash product. The NAND flash probecard market is well served by numerous Korean and Japanese suppliers and very competitive. FORM is not a low cost supplier, and will get killed if they try to enter that market.
I will stick with my prediction that Q3 revenue will not meet the $66M that is the consensus in Yahoo finance. The guidance for Q4 will be less than $50M.
If you back out the Microprobe revenue of $20-25M quarterly you can see how FORMs revenue continues this pattern of lower lows and lower highs. FORMs revenue in Q4 2007 was $125M. If my Q4 prediction is correct FORMs Q42013 revenue could be about $25M ( I am backing out the Microprobe revenue). That is an 80% decline- I am sorry I don't see the growth story here.