DISCLAIMER:I own over 100k shares of ARSD and some of these purchases date back over 35 years.All opinions expressed below were derived from annual reports , 10Qs,annual meetings and independent research over that time-frame.
ROAST EM is probably correct although I feel a little more comfortable with 10 by year's end. It exceeded 8 before the economy collapsed in 08 and now we are two years closer on the mine and the refinery has been upgraded.However, don't look for earnings from the refinery to be important in this increase-they will be insignificant to the rise and insufficient in value to create a major increase in buying that will be needed from the Saudi's and U.S. institutions.It is Al Masane and the projected dividends from its operations that is driving insider buying and increased attention from small investors(IMHO). I am familiar with Sheik Saleh and other million share holders of ARSD and they have always looked at Al Masane and have no real interest in the refinery. In my opinion, the refinery has found a small niche and it always be a very small player although it will grow and is probably worth about 6 dollars on its own.By the way, Saleh spent another 110,000 on Valentine's Day and purchased 22,000 addtional shares. He now owns over 4 million and 16 percent of ARSD. If ARSD can break thru 5 and hold, institutions will then buy more(some cannot buy if stock is less than 5) and also ARSD becomes a margin stock at the brokers. This move would most likely drive both volume and price higher. I further think that the MM's are keeping the price below 5(closing) and I really don't know why. At the end of the day, a magical sell of 100 shares often appears and drives the price down to where the day started. ARSD will remain volatile and might offer a buying opportunity at a lower price but who knows. The bottom is hard to gauge and one big institutional buy could drive this stock up a dollar overnite(They too love dividends). If it goes way down, I will buy more. Right now I am all in and holding.Twenty three and a half million shares outstanding is not much when you consider that at today's metal prices, ARSD,after 12 months production, could bring home over 30+ million dollars as a dividend(after Saudi taxes) from the 202 million yearly gross from Al Masane. As prices change, dividends change but the great thing about mining is that the expenses stay constant.It costs no more to process expensive metals as it does when prices are down. I think prices will stay high for the foreseeable future.Sheik Saleh could be receiving a dividend check in 2013 of over 4 million dollars and that is why I think HE is buying. For those new investors,Al Masane is projected to produce a yearly average (for 11 years-not counting possible new concessions) 62 million pounds of zinc,17.5 million pounds of copper, Eight hundred thousand(800,000) ozs. of silver and twenty thousand(20,000) ozs. of gold. Some studies have put the production a little higher but I prefer the conservative estimate.
I am reading the 10Q now, they have a big debt payment coming up in June.. They arent making nearly the amount of money, nor do they have the amount of money on the balance sheet.. Isnt this a concern.. Guys I am looking to buy this stock but noone is giving me any good reasons as to why this can be 8 dollars.
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Fellars, take a lookyonover at SECX. Should report pert near Valentines Day. Sellin' under book value a $4.55/share and made 15 cents/share in thar first quarter (Thar FY is July 1 to June 30). A real under the radar stock poised to go to double digits in my view. Thar buyin' back stock to. Was $1.20 in October 2009, now $3.71. Don't jest remember SEX around Valentine's Day, remeber SECX, heh,heh,heh....
why? dont get me wrong, i love the company. But recently have taken some profits after a pretty significant move up. I'd love to believe that this puppy is just going to keep making large moves up, but at the same time, i'm hoping for a pull back under 4 so i can load up again. i think there is still some time before we start seeing profit from the mines, so i'm not sure how the earnings are going to warrent a move up to eight short term. If anybody has a good reason, let me know so i can jump back in before i miss the boat.