It seems to me that the ruling this morning framed the actual number that this case is worth to both parties. If you agree that the case is not about the legal matters or who infrnged but for leverage to determine who gets paid what, then the judge simpy narrowed the difference between the two parties with his ruling.
At this point, it is not worth it for either party to continue IMO. GOOG now has a limit on what they owe based on thismornings ruling and that is what they were after. Remember they did not win the case, they got the damages limited. And VRNG for its part also has incentive to settle because even if they win, they face limit to what they can win and appeal will happen.
Sooooo, IMO they are talking settlement and end the case.
My best guess here is this, they settle fro about 200-300 mil one time payment. Stock opens between $5.50-$6 for a 2x cash trading value and where it goes from there is anyone's guess. Thats my stab at it, opther guesses of stable and reasonable bneture welcome,
Activist judge appointed by liberal POTUS. Goog gives a LOT of money to democrats. Used their political power to sway the judge. Just like a liberal, screw the little guy, help out the wealthy campaign donors.
Reasonable evaluation. I'm leaning toward north of $300M though. Hesitant to speculate further - I really did not expect Judge Jackson to make this judgement, so my numbers are badly off. I do think that future royalties will push above $300...but again, what do I know.
I know this makes sense but think about their risk. If they continue on they risk losing the trial, getting with max exposure even with the judges ruling, and getting alot of bad press.
However, they just got dealt a get out of jail free card, they have VRNG on the ropes, they can offer a sum between $1 and the max exposure now and walk away without admitting infringement. That is worth the 200-300 mil VRNGwould take. We shall see,
hahahahaha....goog wouldn't settle for that amount BEFORE this ruling...IF there is a settlement, it will be a pittance.....less than 50mm....and thats a huge IF...goog has nothing to lose by riding it out...
GOOG does have a lot more to lose if they end up with a jury verdict. All that has been agreed upon is the amount of damages, can not go back six years. Future royalties for the next 2-3 max. is what is at stake and what ever the jury deems appropriate. VRNG can appeal and drag this out if they lose, not a good out come.
If the jury sides with VRNG then what about AOL,and the others? This is a big IF at this point so will it end tomorrow? Not a chance, either way GOOG or VRNG will appeal; too much at stake. Is VRNG worth 1.75, NO; it still has the Nokia patents and plenty of money to keep on going. Will it have lost face, just a little till the next round of speculative articles hit the wire.
the low share count will force the stock high on any setttlement but the high warrant count will limit any price action over $5 unless the settlement is huge, which seems unlikely given what we have heard today.