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J. C. Penney Company, Inc. Message Board

  • principletrade principletrade Apr 16, 2013 12:25 PM Flag

    Chances of recovery are pretty low for JCP according to statistics.

    According to a recent Reuters article there have been 17 companies over the last decade that have seen a 15-25% decline in sales year over year. JCP comes in at the low end of that spectrum with comps of -25% year-over-year.

    Of those 17 companies only 4 avoided bankruptcy, and it took an average of 3 years to recover the lost revenues for the companies that recovered. JCP doesn't have 3 years worth of cash to burn, especially with only half of their stores renovated and the additional interest expense from borrowing almost 1B dollars in revolving credit recently.

    Statistically this is probably the next Montgomery Wards. I'm not bashing JCP, but the numbers don't lie.

    For disclosure, I am short here right now.

    ~C

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