I would say more like 33% chance of BK. It has been a horrible year, but with the brand, they still have time to turn things around for the holidays.
There is no 50/50 chance. This POS will go bankrupt very soon. As far as the pension, it all depends on what shenanigans are pulled during the BK filing.
Fortunately there is an insurance program for UA pensions which will guarantee most folk under 50K full benefits in retirement benifits. Less for higher pensions