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J. C. Penney Company, Inc. Message Board

  • misskellyfitz misskellyfitz Oct 5, 2013 12:34 PM Flag

    Christmas Sales Outlook for JCPenney by Gilford Securities analyst and Walter Loeb, a consultant and a former Morgan Stanley analyst

    Type messageconclusion: Under the leadership of new CEO Mike Ullman, JCP is making progress.

    “It’s been my feeling that business is improving,” said Gilford Securities analyst Bernard Sosnick in an
    interview. “That’s what management’s release last week confirmed. I have to believe management has given a truthful appraisal.”

    Sosnick said he expects Penney’s fourth-quarter comparable sales to rise 10% to 15%, better than consensus estimate, as he expects the company’s participation in Black Friday and Cyber Monday promotions this year, which he said it didn’t have last year under Johnson, to lift sales by as much as 7 percentage points.

    “Sales could improve significantly with the return of the promotions, basic inventory and the return of private labels” such as St. John’s Bay for women, Sosnick said, adding he expects Penney to turn a profit in the critical fourth quarter, in contrast to consensus estimate for a loss. “There’s improvement taking place much beyond what most people anticipate.”

    Still, the analyst admitted the equity financing and the share dilution was “a big disappointment” and the reduced cash forecast “is kind of shocking.”

    “As much as I dislike the dilution, it gives Penney a great opportunity to carry out the turn that I think is already in progress,” he said.

    Walter Loeb, a consultant and a former Morgan Stanley analyst, said he expects fourth-quarter sales could rise 10% to 12%. He also said the stock could rise to $19 to $20 a share over the next six months.

    “The first critical test will be the fourth quarter report,” he told MarketWatch. “Information is scant. Most of us are getting information by looking at merchandise. I’m on the side of the coin that because of the weakness last year, the fourth quarter will be gangbusters.”

    “I”m expecting the company to show some strength,” he said. “They have funds to continue. There’s a value in the stock right now.”

    *****

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    • conclusion:Under the leadership of new CEO Mike Ullman, JCP is making progress.

      “It’s been my feeling that business is improving,” said Gilford Securities analyst Bernard Sosnick in an
      interview. “That’s what management’s release last week confirmed. I have to believe management has given a truthful appraisal.”

      Sosnick said he expects Penney’s fourth-quarter comparable sales to rise 10% to 15%, better than consensus estimate, as he expects the company’s participation in Black Friday and Cyber Monday promotions this year, which he said it didn’t have last year under Johnson, to lift sales by as much as 7 percentage points.

      “Sales could improve significantly with the return of the promotions, basic inventory and the return of private labels” such as St. John’s Bay for women, Sosnick said, adding he expects Penney to turn a profit in the critical fourth quarter, in contrast to consensus estimate for a loss. “There’s improvement taking place much beyond what most people anticipate.”

      Still, the analyst admitted the equity financing and the share dilution was “a big disappointment” and the reduced cash forecast “is kind of shocking.”

      “As much as I dislike the dilution, it gives Penney a great opportunity to carry out the turn that I think is already in progress,” he said.

      Walter Loeb, a consultant and a former Morgan Stanley analyst, said he expects fourth-quarter sales could rise 10% to 12%. He also said the stock could rise to $19 to $20 a share over the next six months.

      “The first critical test will be the fourth quarter report,” he told MarketWatch. “Information is scant. Most of us are getting information by looking at merchandise. I’m on the side of the coin that because of the weakness last year, the fourth quarter will be gangbusters.”

      “I”m expecting the company to show some strength,” he said. “They have funds to continue. There’s a value in the stock right now.”

      *****

    • This is very positive !!

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • JCP Participating in Cyber Monday and Black Friday this Year after Not Last Year Raising Q4 Earn. 7% is a No Brainer.Newly Employed gets them the Other 5% from Pent Up Demand. His 10 to 12% forecast is Easily Done.

    • This Walter Loeb is one of the few who are using common sense instead of
      telling investors to throw their shares away.

      Biff

    • When did this come out?

    • Why no mention of the home store?

      • 3 Replies to emmetrope_ou
      • "Why no mention of the home store?"

        they need a Williams-Sonoma dept. to go with thier Saphora Dept. and Disney Dept.

        Ellen Degeneres Dept. Will do FINE , a Whole Womens TV Show to Support It and the Others.

        Have You Seen Any of those 100s Of " JCPenney HAUL Videos " On Youtube ?

        Woman Showing Off ALL Thier Stuff they Bought at JCP On Video .

        Ellen Degeneres Started that On her Show.

        It's Funny , Women Showing OFF thier Shopping HAULs. PROUD/Happy Buyers.

        *****

      • Despite the old caveat that hard Home [cookware, small appliances, etc] isn't profitable but is necessary to make a department store feel more complete--why did JCP get into a position with Martha et al that put them in an even worse position? I suppose that we're all asking the same question.

        The private label Cooks brand was a hit with the customer JCP actually had, and not the one they failed to attract. I'd like to see Cooks return, but again--housewares doesn't help the bottom line on its own.

        Still, the Home Division took the biggest risk, IMHO, since soft lines missteps are quicker to turn around after a major mistake. In a recent trip to JCP [out of curiosity], I actually saw some SJB styles that were nice updated classics--i.e. nothing like the bright yellow slacks of the Johnson era.

      • Lots Of Mention Of Disney and Saphora Dept.

        (The OPRAH Winfrey Affect)
        Ellen Degeneres dept. is a Big Seller too.You Know she has a National Show and PUMPS JCP to All the Women Watching EVERY DAY !!!

 
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