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J. C. Penney Company, Inc. Message Board

  • yahutag yahutag May 4, 2014 9:45 AM Flag

    Q1 sales projection

    I analyzed previous sales data and found an interesting pattern. Q1 sales are normally 70% of the prior Q4. Adjusting for the recovery by adding an additional 2%, my forecast is for Q1 sales to be 72% of 2013 Q4, or $2723 million. That compares pretty well with the average of analysts estimates of $2710. This, of course, doesn't take into account for weather, holiday schedules, or the prevailing economic conditions.

    Q2 through Q4 can be estimated in the same manner, giving me a total for the year of $12,711, which is 7% above FY2013, and within guidance. At an average 34% gross margin, which I consider to be quite reasonable, the total margin dollars for the year will be $4322.

    It was interesting to look at the effect of RJ on sales. He took over as CEO on 6/14/2011, and sales began to fall almost immediately.

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