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CHINA MEDIAEXPRESS Message Board

  • Daniel_L_Kaufman Daniel_L_Kaufman Feb 4, 2011 11:08 AM Flag

    $20 in 2 weeks

    It's all about following the money. You will need to read to the end to hear why I believe we will be back at $20 in 2 short weeks.
    The cash is in the bank. $170M as of 9/30/10 and over $200M now.
    DT has verified the cash. Starr has verified the cash. Numerous banking analysts have verified the cash.
    MW, Citron, Bronte et al would have us believe that the founder of CCME sneakily, fraudulently injected $100M of his own money into the company bank account over the past 12 months, pretending that the $100M was earnings. It would have to have been freakishly complicated, making it look like all that money came from umpteen different customers, customers that none of the sales people had actually sold anything to. Seriously, take a moment and try to imagine how hard it would be to inject $100M of cash into the company and make it look like it came from real customers.
    And why would the founder have injected $100M of his own money to perpetrate this massive fraud, a fraud for which he could be executed? He put in all this CASH in order to earn more SHARES. Shares which he could only sell years later after additional Deloitte audits, which could only be sold to institutional investors who would examine the company's books and operations with a magnifying glass.
    I'm sorry, but no. Makes zero sense. No, it's worse than that. It's a retarded concept.
    The way frauds work is the opposite... the founder DOES NOT put cash into the company. He takes CASH OUT of the company. He inflates inventory and a/r to pretend there are earnings that aren't really there. He does secondary offerings to raise cash for the company. He pockets this cash by buying related parties at inflated values. That kind of thing.
    I feel really, really bad for everyone who sold yesterday based on Citron's and MW's maliciously fraudulent reports. They knew they were lying. They knew were bankrupting people. I believe they will pay.
    OK, back to the 2-week, $20 price target...
    The cash is real and I believe that the company is going to spend $30M buying back its stock starting next week after they announce unaudited Q4 numbers. $30M will buy back somewhere between 2-2.5M shares. There are only 11M shares in the float (plus another, let's call it, 5M shares still short). When the company buys 2M shares, the shorts will be forced to buy back another 1-2M shares. This sustained buying pressure, along with that of all the long and short shareholders who will be re-assured/scared-senseless by the dramatic increase in price, will drive the stock back to $20 in very short order.

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    • When those Deloitte-audited financials come in signed, there is going to be pandaemonium to grab CCME shares hand over fist. Shorts better cover.

    • Hello

      你好

    • agreed!!!!

    • Well put

    • my mistake, $20 in 1 week, just follow the money
      It's all about following the money. You will need to read to the end to hear why I believe we will be back at $20 in 2 short weeks.
      The cash is in the bank. $170M as of 9/30/10 and over $200M now.
      DT has verified the cash. Starr has verified the cash. Numerous banking analysts have verified the cash.
      MW, Citron, Bronte et al would have us believe that the founder of CCME sneakily, fraudulently injected $100M of his own money into the company bank account over the past 12 months, pretending that the $100M was earnings. It would have to have been freakishly complicated, making it look like all that money came from umpteen different customers, customers that none of the sales people had actually sold anything to. Seriously, take a moment and try to imagine how hard it would be to inject $100M of cash into the company and make it look like it came from real customers.
      And why would the founder have injected $100M of his own money to perpetrate this massive fraud, a fraud for which he could be executed? He put in all this CASH in order to earn more SHARES. Shares which he could only sell years later after additional Deloitte audits, which could only be sold to institutional investors who would examine the company's books and operations with a magnifying glass.
      I'm sorry, but no. Makes zero sense. No, it's worse than that. It's a retarded concept.
      The way frauds work is the opposite... the founder DOES NOT put cash into the company. He takes CASH OUT of the company. He inflates inventory and a/r to pretend there are earnings that aren't really there. He does secondary offerings to raise cash for the company. He pockets this cash by buying related parties at inflated values. That kind of thing.
      I feel really, really bad for everyone who sold yesterday based on Citron's and MW's maliciously fraudulent reports. They knew they were lying. They knew were bankrupting people. I believe they will pay.
      OK, back to the 2-week, $20 price target...
      The cash is real and I believe that the company is going to spend $30M buying back its stock starting next week after they announce unaudited Q4 numbers. $30M will buy back somewhere between 2-2.5M shares. There are only 11M shares in the float (plus another, let's call it, 5M shares still short). When the company buys 2M shares, the shorts will be forced to buy back another 1-2M shares. This sustained buying pressure, along with that of all the long and short shareholders who will be re-assured/scared-senseless by the dramatic increase in price, will drive the stock back to $20 in very short order.

    • perhaps. certainly that's what mgmt SHOULD do.

      however, why haven't they announced that already?? would have placed a floor under the stock and vaporized a ton of the FUD enveloping this issue.

      I'm sorry, but mgmt's response to this attack -- particularly in light of prior short attacks vs. other Chinese small caps AND mgmt's knowledge of the MAMMOTH short interest in its stock -- has been pathetic. I am not persuaded to buy in just yet (although my finger is on the trigger...)

      C'mon CCME mgmt! Show some balls and take the offensive here for crying out loud!!!!

    • I am not so optimistic.

      But within 6 month, CCME will for sure above 30.

 
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