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Nanosphere, Inc. (NSPH) Message Board

  • techstrategy techstrategy May 5, 2011 11:06 AM Flag

    Wonder if momentum shorts are on margin?

    It's been fascinating to watch silver collapse this past week. Other commodites are doing the same. The theme is the same -- massively leverage speculators pushed the price too far (too high in those cases) and now are running for the hills the "bubble" burst.

    NSPH may be analogous in the opposite direction. The shorts have beaten this down too far based upon MASSIVE shorts interest expansion. It's kind of impossible to know the composition of the shorts -- the funds are probably well capitalized, but my guess is 20-40% of the short interest sits outside of funds. My guess is also that those traders have been using leverage/margin to push this down.

    It will be REALLY interesting to see what happens when aggressive buying kicks in. Once silver started to collapse, it imploded. Oil has dropped rapidly as well. Would love to see a parabolic increase here...

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    • I sold 2/3 of my position last week.. so a good opportunity to average in here. ;)

    • I have my position.

      Just waiting for the value to manifest in the SP.

      No worries.. every post by DailyD.. Sammy will be proven false/misleading.

    • Sub:

      You've gone quiet...

    • I have to say, I generally empathize with Sub's frustration. The problem with the capital markets now is that EVERYONE is a trader and few people are investors. The money is made beating a stock back and forth rather than INVESTING capital in companies. HFT (especially flash trading) has limited, if any, value creation. It creates a minimal benefit of increased liquidity at the cost of instability (see flash crash), but it basically is stealing the retail investor surplus.

      If we had more investors and fewer traders, the country would be a lot better off...

    • I am calm because, at the end of the day, I've done very well over the past few years INVESTING, not trading.

      I've gotten killed over the past 2 months -- lost about 1/3rd of the funds I have personally invest. Google, in particular, has killed me but NSPH hasn't helped.

      Having said that, I'm still 5X what I started at 2 years ago, despite the recent losses. I don't believe in owning indexes. I concentrate my assets in a few stocks where I see a wildly positively skewed risk return profile. I made 6X in 8 months on LUNA (did the homework to realize the IP judgment was not going to hold). I've made a lot on NSPH because they've bulled it down to 3 a few times before and I've gradually reduced my position at between $5.50 and $6.50.

      I trade around a very significant core holding. I will reduce my position if it runs too far too fast, but it will be WAY higher than it is today before I start selling anything.

      For reference, Fidelity accumulated most of its holding between $4.50 and $5.00 (you can see it happened in December and early January). That gives you an idea that the institutions believe this is worth WAY more than where it is at today.

      You might ask, why don't they buy a lot right now? The answer is that they aren't in a hurry. They'd rather let Sammy and his short friends keep selling them stock at these levels. They are in complete control and they, along with others, will gradually accumulate while the price is this low rather than chasing it up. Sammy and friends are buying time, but are digging a deeper hole. And, you can tell from the non-existent volume during the market selloff that there are no natural sellers here and that the owners of this stock are not doing it on margin...

      In contrast, when a catalyst hits that will create demand from others, they will put some pressure on the shorts. Then, we will see if there is leverage/margin underpinning the short positions.

      I'm calm because the short sellers prey upon fear. That's Sammy's job. To create fear, uncertainty and doubt. It takes convication to hold a stock like this. But, try it. Just don't buy on margin and assume that they MIGHT be able to beat it down $.50 from here. I really doubt they can. But, prepare for it mentally and reserve cash to buy more. You will be rewarded because they are digging such a deep hole that it is INSANE.

    • pre-cisely. the best defense = great offense.

      these people are completely FOS.

      THE THREAT.. the most intense competition.. is from QE2-3-4?? and inflation. It is CERTAIN.

    • I hope so too. The last buy I made at $2.70 I sold at $2.96. Not bad for my 2nd trade on this stock.

      I am back in today at $2.70-$2.74 looking for a repeat.......

 
NSPH
0.441+0.001(+0.27%)Oct 30 3:59 PMEDT

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