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NetSol Technologies, Inc. Message Board

  • netsollong netsollong Jul 2, 2013 4:49 AM Flag

    Kscott462.

    Are you not able to put numbers behind your thinking ?

    Give me your forecasted EPS for 2013-2014

    We should soon know if you were right or way off track.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • i'm starting to think that my estimates of .25 for 4th quarter were a little too optimistic.
      the analysts have it at .24, stock price is drifting lower and might indicate a miss.

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

    • glad you asked. ntwk likes to report eps based on average weighted shares not total shares
      to lessen the damage dilution does in any given qtr. knowing that, you should always look at
      total shares issued on the balance sheet to give you an idea of dilution which already happened
      but was not reported as it will hit the next reported qtr. using the actual average weighted shares
      already reported for the last 4 qtrs here is how i think everything will unfold. if you notice, 3 months ago
      analysts were expecting .35 for the qtr that we just finished for 6/30, but when tailwinds fully converted
      their notes their estimates dropped significantly to .25. as a result full current year estimates also
      dropped from .94 to .84 and the stock price dropped. (well deserved i might add)
      my opinion is as follows if no secondary offerings are done or no shares converted for any new note offering.
      i'm just using existing dilution & with estimated additional shares as we all know they pay some bills
      with shares every qtr as well as exercise options, warrants & convert to new shares. (see subsequent events from last 10-q)

      q4 june .25 eps - net income of 2.2 mill - already reflects significant dilution from .35 to give .84 for year with 8.75 million average shares vs 7.5 mill shares prior yr.

      q1 2014 sept - .16 eps - net income of 1.45 mill on 9.0 mill avg shares vs 7.6 mill shares prior yr.
      q2 2014 dec - .25 eps - net income of 2.3 mill on 9.3 mill avg shares vs 8.0 mill shares prior yr.
      q3 2014 march - .26 eps - net income of 2.5 mill on 9.6 mill avg shares vs 8.4 mill shares prior yr.
      q4 2014 june - .27 eps - net income of 2.7 mill on 10.0 mill avg shares vs 8.75 mill shares prior yr
      2014 eps of .94 vs .84 for 2013 = eps growth of 12% due to dilution, current price of 10.23 = pe of 11
      with a market cap of 102.3 million on 2014 revenue of around 60 million. which reflects i think is fairly valued. if they issue new shares for any reason, game over.

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

 
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