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NetSol Technologies, Inc. Message Board

  • flone6 flone6 Sep 13, 2013 10:30 AM Flag

    anyone see the new earnings estimates in Yahoo?

    they have 2015 estimates out there now. 2014 estimates are up to $1.06, and the 2015 estimates are $1.35. that's 27% growth, and solid acceleration of growth. that puts fair value of this stock somewhere around $28.

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    • Those estimates will be revised higher - analysts have not updated yet - they will be over next few weeks.

      I expect analyst 2014 estimates to move to $1.20 - $1.25 and that will be out of caution not having the guidance. 2015 estimate will be $1.50 - and again, that being conservative.

      People are not taking into account how fast earnings can go up as a result of the low share count and their expanding profit margins (""Our cost arbitrage is second to none")

      Let's figure 10 million shares. 10 cent EPS is $1 million. This past year we have 95 cents which was $7.8 million on revenues of $50.8 million = net margin of 15.35%. Prior year we had 39 cents which was $2.4 million on $39.8 million revenue = net margin of 6%.

      We currently have 2014 revenue estimated at $65 million. Understanding that CAPEX is going to be lower, and there will be more economies of scale, let's be conservative and say that net margin goes to 20%. With $65 million revenues 20% margin is $13 million profits = $1.30/share if we go with 10 million shares.

      Now, obviously, that assumes 10 million shares but likewise a conservative $65 million in sales and a conservative 20% net profit margin.

      So, when the analysts move to $1.25/share for 2014, even by my conservative model, that would be even more conservative.

      • 1 Reply to o08o.ugh64w
      • Record revenues are guaranteed for 2014 and they are likely to be explosive.

        As far as the EPS is concerned......that depends on how fast they want to grow.......and if they want pull all the plugs out then EPS estimates can have a wide range and this is the uncertainty whereby we have not seen the spike hold....for now

        At this stage, if someone was to ask me for a range for EPS in which I could be 95% confident of the actual being within that range......... it would be 80-125 Cents EPS for 2014 and 110-150 Cents for 2015 ( hopefully the considerable expenses related to growth would have quietened down by then )

        As time goes on , off course the range will tighten

        This is a golden opportunity to add for the long term and I will be.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • That's close to my fair value...

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

 
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