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Empresas ICA, S.A.B. de C.V. Message Board

  • frdastaire frdastaire Jul 28, 2013 8:51 AM Flag


    How could income more than double compared to 2Q 2012 yet net earnings go from positive to big negative? Pain on Monday?

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    • redheadinvestor Jul 29, 2013 2:16 AM Flag

      Anyway, go to their website and read the financial release brief. It's in English. It's quite clear. My math isn't perfect (I am doing it in my head off a press release just to answer your question) but it's not so far off and it's directionally accurate.

    • redheadinvestor Jul 29, 2013 2:10 AM Flag

      Construction revenue fell 35% to MXN 4.6 B. That means that in 2Q12, it was 7 B (do the math).

      Total revenue is now 8.2 B, which means non-construction revenue is 3.6 B. Formerly, total revenue was 9.5 B, which means (if you do the math) non-construction revenue has surged from 2.5 B to 3.6 B.

      If the backlog is growing and big infrastructure spending is in Mexico's future, construction revenue is fixing to eventually recover from this drop. Non-construction revenue will probably take some near-term hits due to liquidations, but it is likely to also be in a general uptrend. ICA just needs to be in a financial position, a treasury position, to maximize this dynamic. Near-term profits and losses shouldn't be an issue. But we'll see.

    • redheadinvestor Jul 29, 2013 1:44 AM Flag

      USD 100 M in exchange losses due to higher debt, MXN depreciation (12 to 13, to USD 1, in 2Q) and a change in interest accounting as projects go from completion to operation.

      Before the Great Crash, MXN tracked 11 pretty closely, and most analysts think Mexico's economy will outperform. If I speculated in currencies, I would have gone long the MXN at 13.

      I'm long neat recent lows and I'm prepared for some volatility. I'm not too worried about the results. If it crashes Monday (who knows?) I will buy more. I suspect it won't be too big a deal.

    • Forward revenue projections โ€” via Mexico's recent commitment โ€” is the springboard moving forward. : )

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