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Vintage Petroleum, Inc. (VPI) Message Board

  • imadeadcat imadeadcat Feb 2, 2004 12:14 PM Flag

    E &P valuation metric

    According to Raymond James average E&P(in their universe) selling at 4.6 times EBITDA. They expect revaluation to more realistic 5 to 7 times EBITDA. You can do the math on VPI. Their 2004 # was EBITDA estimate of $315 million as of 11/04 based upon $27 oil and $5 ng...using production of 26.9 million BOE annually. But my guess is we are at least $3 low on the oil and gas pboe estimate which would add $80 million.... for $395million EBITDAX x 4.6 =$1.817 billion minus ~$750 million debt = 1.06 billion for equity divided by 65 million shares = $16.30 per share...but if the market goes to 6 times EBITDAX then we are looking at $395 x 6 = $2.370 billion less ~750 million or $1.6 billion for the equity or $24.60 a share. Please check my math and assumptions.

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