According to Raymond James average E&P(in their universe) selling at 4.6 times EBITDA. They expect revaluation to more realistic 5 to 7 times EBITDA. You can do the math on VPI. Their 2004 # was EBITDA estimate of $315 million as of 11/04 based upon $27 oil and $5 ng...using production of 26.9 million BOE annually. But my guess is we are at least $3 low on the oil and gas pboe estimate which would add $80 million.... for $395million EBITDAX x 4.6 =$1.817 billion minus ~$750 million debt = 1.06 billion for equity divided by 65 million shares = $16.30 per share...but if the market goes to 6 times EBITDAX then we are looking at $395 x 6 = $2.370 billion less ~750 million or $1.6 billion for the equity or $24.60 a share. Please check my math and assumptions.
Assuming that your calculations are correct, your assumptions may be wrong. First of all Raymond James covers Canadian E & P's for the most part, right? Second, $27 oil and $5 ng are historically high. Third, I haven't figured their average ngas price, but it isn't anywhere near $5 from what I know.
I don't think that Raymond James universe of E&Ps is primarily Canadian at all. I will check. Yes $5ng and $27 gas are high historically but low for 2004,imo. Yes VPI does not get $5 but their assumptions and mine are not based on what they get but on what NYMEX is, and they run on a percentage of NYMEX. So if nymex is up a dollar they should be up a dollar( or very close to it) excluding hedges.