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Advent Software, Inc. Message Board

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  • lemonyelow1 lemonyelow1 Apr 23, 2003 11:04 PM Flag

    Business Week blurb...

    I'll be brief, too -- to cite WB in connection with a high-tech company is evidence of some "crossed wires" in your analytic process -- he looks for consistent earnings and a "franchise." The first one -- for whatever reason(s) -- is clearly absent; I repeat that -- Microsoft (probably) notwithstanding, a software company is among the least likely to "be able to bottle it."

    I went short out of a sense that the man at Stiffel N. was "right on the money" in projecting a fair price (well before 18 months go by) of 8-10; in that I think the market as a whole (and well-run tech stocks in particular) will make a nice run north, I can think of no better way to "hedge my bets" than to be short ADVS.... You're welcome to the last word -- hope you learn something if you're as wrong as I think events will prove you to be.... ADVS doesn't have "value" in a classic Graham & Dodd sense -- watch their cash shrink as they continue to do things like reprice options so that they (management) profit at the expense of shareholders. Somebody once crowed how every dividend payment was an "up yours" to the shorts -- I suppose they're right, if only literally.... But I sure feel like I'm on the right team when there's the kind of self-dealing that ADVS' honchos are engaging in -- I'm inclined to think that their lack of savvy in this regard is of a piece with their having taken their eye off the ball that is the company of which they're "stewards."

    You sound like too bright a fellow to be backing such a lame horse!

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