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Alexza Pharmaceuticals Inc. Message Board

  • cabogordon cabogordon May 10, 2013 6:55 PM Flag

    FUNDEMENTALS / MY HUMBLE ASSUMPTIONS

    Looks like the bottom is being formed. The tape reads like the resell traders are done. The downside pressure came from the 4mm warrants being exercised at $5.00. Thise new owners have not sold nor will they until we reach double digits. My hunch is the company wanted to get all the warrants execised to not have to deal with this sell off down the road. The company has issued more options. I believe in the 3mm range. I have no issue with this. MGMT needs to be rewarded. They have worked hard and need to be tied to the potential. Sweat equity / that how bio do it. In my humble opinion the company postponed earnings in oder to capture $40mm and warrants fee's. I think this is a great move. The company now has a very strong balance sheet , somewhere around $70mm. It might be more in the $65mm range due to thier burn last quarter. yet, moving forward the company will have a lower costs due to TEVA handling a majority of costs. The $25mm line is there if needed. I can't imagine thay will need to do another offering thus the float will remain under 25mm movning forward. thats small and can move hard. I also believe alot of shorts convered yesterday and today thus contributing to the bottom being in. The company now has some blue skies. they have another $195mm in potential revenue coming upon certain milestones being hit and nice 20% royalty from sales ( my guess ) nothing published on this yet. CC will address this. There delevery system has multi use applications and provide substantial revenue for decades to come. ALXA could have sold the company but decided to move forward as a stand alone for now. TEVA must have a first right of refusal should MGMT decide to sell. In my opinion ALXA market cap will near billion in the next 2-3 years that a 10 bagger people. the story here is awesome. it will take patience . the company is now derisked as they have a FDA approval and a top tier partner, strong balance sheet and solid MGMT. hold on people .. god bless..

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    • Nice post. To add a little color to your analysis in the form of some basic TA, I'd say this looks like a nice cup and handle - holders from the top in Dec 2012 (5.5 to 6.5) got out now, the handle should take anywhere from 4 days to several weeks in the 5.0 - 5.5 range, then up and through previous resistance at 6.5 and onwards to at least 8.

      I think the catalysts to this move will be:

      1. Analyst upgrades following CC on Tuesday
      2. Clarity around the warrants (are they exercised now?)
      3. Actual sales

      I have loaded the boat w shares and calls, see you north of 8 during the summer.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to mikkelrs
      • I just finished reading the last 10-k. I see the 4.4MM warrants at $5. That's the big one and may be a moot point after the "GAP UP SELL OFF." It may be pretty much over at this point. These people shorted the 4.4MM shares against the warrant position and its now in strong hands.....I think we have 20MM shares O/S as I type.......But again, that is a very small number that someone else correctly posted can "MOVE HARD & FAST"........There are warrants with strike prices from $17 to $27 ...but not that many. There are options for people at the company as well, but I dont think warrants are an issue at all. I am 100% sure in my mind it is irrelevant. There is a tax loss carryforward of about $300MM .....Think of it like this , about $15 per share was spent by someone else to get us to Friday's closing price of $4.91.........This is a tremendous bargain. I place a healthy value on the staccato delivery SYSTEM. There are some PSEUDO-ANALYSTS that have been bought by the shorts. Jason Napadano is chief amongst that crew. I read his comments about ALXA, it was shamefully obvious that he is a shill for the shorts. Ridiculously obvious to me. Piper's analyst is the one of the sharpest of the legit people that cover the stock...Brozak is probably the best. They have targets that will even be raised now that TEVA is in the mix. Looking forward to seeing this at $10+ soon. Just my $.02

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • I agree with much of your post. Anything to base your 20% royalty guess on? Previous experience w/ other bios? The release just said tiered.

      Thanks..........Kel

 
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