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ImmunoGen, Inc. Message Board

  • chinesehamsters chinesehamsters Jan 14, 2011 1:20 PM Flag

    OT: Ariad's Ridaforolimus...

    Ariad's oncology drug ridaforolimus looks really good so far, they are expecting to announce results from their phase III trial this quarter. I have held this one since March of 2010 and added some more after if broke the $5 barrier recently.

    I have a core trading position but also made an options trade to get the blood pumping again. I sold the Jan 2012 $5 puts and bought some Jan 2012 $10 calls. I think it was someone here on this board that originally brought this stock up by the way.

    This week was the first time I saw any analysts projections on this drug, and they are guestimating over $1 billion in the first year, peak sales ~$5 billion. I think the dude might be sniffing glue on those numbers but a few hundred million would be huge for this little company.

    They are partnered with Merck on this drug so merck is footing the bills on all the clinical trials, which by the way I believe are around 18 or so in various oncology indications and in combination with other drugs.

    Little FYI for your Friday. I don't think my word Biotechtopia is catching on yet, so use this word when you can. I trade marked it so I get a dime every time it is used.

    Chinese Hamsters

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    • nice heads up CH.

      • 1 Reply to honoranpride
      • ARIA data I think was expected, but only two trading days after I re-established my position; well that is just lucky. The data actually looks better than I thought it might. They might have justification to ask for a fast track approval here. I think Merck might be too conservative to push it, but on the other hand they just lost a piece of their own pipeline a couple of weeks ago so they have some motivation to move this one along.

        I don't think it is too late to jump on board here. I would expect to see some upgrades this week and some new price targets.

        Chinese Hamsters

    • Thanks for the helpful info on Chris. Great summary.

    • I have a modest long position in ARIA, but I am really skeptical of the $5B/y for rida sales. It is already getting a little crowded in the mTOR space.

      I do like the breadth of trials, and they also have Ponatinib well into trials. So you get 2 shots at a winner.

      But I thought you stuck with biologics and not small molecules? Don't tell me that your "inner human" is coming out of your hamster skin :-)

    • Ariad is my other favorite biotech, besides IMGN. Thinking IMGN won't do much for a while, as suggested by another poster. Would like to get into a new one, and spread out my bets, get blood moving. Any thoughts on Curis? I rode Vical up and down, and that got old. Thanks for any new ideas.
      GLTA BioBottom

      • 3 Replies to biobottom
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      • Biobottom - Since you asked, my tech portfolio is DNDN, IMGN, ARIA, AVII, and diagnostic, CPHD. AVII might be the best of the lot at this point for high risk/high reward. CPHD is maturing, but still has a lot of upside IMO.

        Another high risk/high reward to get your blood going is microturbine company, CPST. I love their product.

        Good Luck and do your own full Due Diligence.

      • OT, you asked about Curis and it is my largest holding followed closely by IMGN. There was an article this week that drove the stock up over 50% but it still has a way to go IMO. Both IMGN and Curis are similar in the fact they both have agreements with Gennetech and both have so far shown great results in testing and they both have cash to last about 2 more years, although at this point I think the cash balance for IMGN will last them a little longer. I do believe Curis will have an offering shortly which will drop the price temporarily but then investors will want to get in before the phase 2 results come in which will drive it back up again. My personal hope is they raise another $20 million or so to give them more breathing room since nothing with the FDA is assured as IMGN investors know. The current price for Curis is almost like buying a call that doesn't expire.

        They, like IMGN, are going to submit for accelerated approval based on a phase 2 trial (Curis' trial is a pivotal phase 2 trial) and hopefully have different results than IMGN did last summer. The big difference in the phase 2 trials is Curis, actually Genentech, designed their phase 2 with the FDA prior to the start since the phase 1 showed such amazing results. There are currently 29 clinical trials underway for the compound developed jointly by Curis and Gennetech and it hasn't even been approved.

        You know the story, if it gets approved, the stock explodes and if there is a delay, it implodes. The recent article gave price targets of between $.50 and $40 or more with approval, pretty wide range don't you think LOL? The drug works it is all a matter of timing. If you are interested I have provided a bunch of links over at the CRIS board to begin your dd.

        This year IMO Curis will have much more volatility than IMGN and I believe also has more risk based on it's current cash position. With that risk, I also think the potential reward is much greater though. The company is much smaller than IMGN and only has about 35 employees so it won't take much revenue to make it extremely profitable.

        Good luck and hopefully both IMGN and CRIS take off in the near term.

    • Biotechtopia does not flow like FDelay. Biotopoia flows nicely. REGN just hit a new high, SGEN is trading near its high, IMGN is lagging a little. Keep the new and good ideas coming ARIA is one I have kept a eye on, but never owned. They always seemed a little dicey, close to shady.

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