We will get our first glimpse of Kadcyla (I think it should be pronounced like Godzilla) sales out of the earnings call. I am going to guestimate about $25 million in sales for the 1st quarter. That would be treating about 2500 patients.
You are up 5% because SGEN is up even more than IMGN as usual. Still talking about/owning CHRIS the dog?
2500 pts. seems high considering the short time frame, I think less than half of that would be pretty good. Junius was talking on Cramer's show about a few patients that were waiting for approval and started right away. We will know more about launch later in the year, or at least after a full quarter. Maybe mgmt will offer some qualitative info on the 11th.
I posted a bio-marker article yesterday that looked interesting for targeting patients that are most likely to respond. That could help patient results but might slightly limit the market?
I will go with $32M. I think the bolus effect (all those patients waiting for approval) could swing the number high. A .lot might depend on how fast everybody can reast though. It really is a crapshoot guess though, as we have no idea what the lead times are. What counts is their Q2 guidance and general comments.
As to your SGEN v IMGN comments, I always have a good laugh on this one.In recent times (the last several years, not the bio bubble nonsense of the '01 era), SGEN has traded for about 2x the pps of IMGN. Yes, SGEN did just recently have a VERY nice run, but IMGN has just closed the gap and cound easily be back at .5 or more of SGEN any day.
According to one long time poster(now gone) over on Y! SGEN's board, SGEN is forever at 10 (10 means 10). Acording to opie, IMGN has been stuck since it was at $5. Seams like both companies have returned nice 3+ x runs for us.
I own both horses in this race equally (in general, though I trade around), so really could care less.
And I guess we will see how CRIS the dog does tomorrow as well as Roche will also have Erivedge sales data. Expectations are perhaps too high for Erivedge just yet. We are still waiting for EMEA approval and the market size will likely double once the can expand the label for operable BCC. Expect sales of maybe $13 to $14 million for Q4. Puny I know, but growing.
The Kadcyla sales for the quarter were actually pretty impressive. Consider they got approval on Feb 22nd, so those sales only reflect about 35 or so days of sales. Also consider that this is only approval in the US that accounts for this level of uptake. We could get EMEA approval anytime I suppose. It was filed in August, but I don't believe the EMEA granted an expedited review, so they may take as along as a year before we see our first approval there.