Let's have a little fun for a change. We know that IMGN will record it's mile stone payment for Kadcyla approval in this quarter, but what will Kadcyla sales be? I am basing my estimate on the average number of patients treated with Herceptin in 2012, and using the cost of Kadcyla per month ($9,800). My estimate for the quarter is around $288.6 million based on those figures. I'm about as bullish on this drug as anyone, but not even I think that number is realistic yet. Say uptake is only about 30% of total patients in 2012, so target around $86.6 million for the quarter.
Last night I was reading the IV board and noticed was appeared to be an IMS summary of sales info for Roche that included April+May. I don't know how accurate IMS data are, but the number listed for 2 months I assume was $37MM. So, the 2Q sales number could be as low #$%$57. I have heard from the ARNA posters that IMS data are flawed for several reasons. Either way, we should expect that IMGN will not get any significant revs this year, but hopefully sales will ramp to a stronget level for 2014 when the patient population can be expanded.
Sold a few high-priced calls recently, will sell some lower strike puts on any decline back towards the uptrend line. Currently IMGN is technically overbought.
Looks like Kadcyla sales for the 1/2 year came in at 83 million swiss francs which I think works out to 64 million swiss francs for the qtr since I believe the first qtr was 19 million which translates into about $60-61 million USD for the qtr Looks like the IMS data was close. Let's see what the market thinks about it in the morning. To me it seems pretty good considering it has only been on the market for just a few months but I know others were expecting much higher sales. From the report:
"The uptake of Perjeta and Kadcyla has been very encouraging so far."
"Sales in the Pharmaceuticals Division rose 6% with Avastin, Herceptin, Actemra/RoActemra, Perjeta, MabThera/Rituxan and Kadcyla growing strongly."
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Roche reports on July 25th it looks like, so we will see where Kadcyla sales are. In other news, we should see an approval in the EU for Kadcyla in this coming quarter, for pre-treated HER2+ MBC (2nd line MBC), like we received from the FDA in February. This was the EMILIA trial. Both were filed in August of 2012, same data to both regulatory agencies, also filed in Japan I believe around the same time. Chugai is the Roche partner there.
There are also 3 additional phase III trials for Kadcyla ongoing, one in 1st line MBC (MARIANNE) and another in 3rd line MBC (TH3RESA). Patients enrolled are N=1,092 and N=600 respectively. Another phase III trial (KATHERINE) had just begun enrollment for HER2+ early BC high risk patients, N=1,484 for that one. We might expect to see an approval in Japan this year as well for 2nd line MBC, but I'm not sure what kind of royalties will come to Immunogen for that since Chugai is involved there.
So the big news to watch for is sales for Q2 in the US, and pending approval in the 3rd quarter (doubt it falls into the 4th quarter) in the EU. This would be a great time to see some other positive data out of one of the other molecules in the pipeline to further validate the Immunogen ADC platform.
I will go with $25, + $50 + $75 per month = $150, which is just a guess after reading another message and the logic on the IV board and subtracting. To me, anything over $100MM in the first full quarter would seem very bullish, particularly if monthly sales rates are on the rise as in my guesstimate. next...