First Off - congrats on TSRX, and I see you can potentially get 2 more bucks on that if sales materialize - anyhow, good deal. Also, in a post below you say that to management, all stocks are for sale, but at the right price. What do you think IMGN management's right price would be, given today's knowledge base?
I wrote a detailed response, but it disappeared. Short story is present price/value seems about fair. Next increases in valuation come from pipeline maturing (3 phase I compounds moving into phase II and phase II results) and additional Kadcyla trial resluts that could significantly expand the market. I think 901 is old technology, I am not aware of them using a companion diagnostic to identify likely responders and therefore fear it will be a bust. 901 busting will only hurt for a short period and could present the next good buying opportunity.
Acquisition is possible any time, especially if execs and BOD feel pressure from owners (I have tried to apply some). If a deal were announced tomorrow, based on the valuation relative to SGEN, I could see $30 and much more if/when the pipeline matures and if/when Kadcyla is approved for a much larger market and in Europe. I am excited about the pipeline, but fear IMGN execs are not capable of moving the drugs forward rapidly. Hope I am wrong, or they partner early with an aggressive development partner that has deep pockets and like Roche.
I actually think 901 has a reasonably good shot at showing some significant improvement over just etoposide/carboplatin by itself. Others have shown anywhere between 75-100% of NSCLC to be CD56 positive. So if that holds true they will be successful in delivering the maytansinoid molecule to the cell, I think it will become a question of tolerability, adverse events, dosing, etc.... The one in the pipeline that I don't have much faith in is IMGN 853. I think Endocytes folate conjugated small molecule is going to rule that space, especially in ovarian cancer, the same target that Immunogen is going after here. And Endocyte has a significant lead on them at this point, with some pretty hefty backing from Merck.
Kadcyla sales still have plenty of room to surprise to the upside in my opinion. Were just barely getting started there. Right now we are pretty fairly valued.