I've been watching IMGN for a while and this is why I took a position earlier today:
Take a look at the close on April 18....14.25.....bottomed......Take a look at the close on June 20....15.37.....bottomed again.......The increase in the bottoms was about 8%.....That brings us to today......Another 8% increase from the June 20 bottom puts us at about $16.59.......Catch my drift
Sentiment: Strong Buy
It is a simple to forecast that Immunogen's share price should grow as Kadcyla sales increase. Roche is intent on transitioning essentially their entire Herceptin franchise over to Kadcyla by around 2018 when the patent expires. By then we should see label expansions in all breast cancer indications, and Kadcyla is likely to be adopted as the new standard of care. We will also be looking at further expansion into other HER 2+ cancers by then as well.
Herceptin sales for all of 2012 were ~$6.36 billion. Kadcyla is priced at 2.2x what Herceptin was, thus the Kadcyla franchise could be expected to grow to as much as $13.9 billion. Just on a straight 5% royalty that is $695 million. Outstanding shares for Immunogen stand at around 85 million. That is $8 and change in earning per share. Anything else in the pipeline that works out is gravy.
With Kadcyla for frontline, pretty much the treat of biosimilar Herceptin is gone. I'm not sure if pertuzumab is even needed. I wonder how HALO's subQ technology will play into Kadcyla's expansion and efficacy.
Why are there no Fabs, nor scFvs with ADCs, for better penetration and quicker washout?
that would be something. If Roche thinks that will happen, they can certainly afford to pay at least 3x that amount to buy IMGN's royalty, cash, pipeline, technology and John Lambert's expertise. Think of all the cost savings if/when they get rid of the redundant and under performing execs. They could actually get rid of everything except John Lambert's team. They might want to grow that group and hire some additional competent clinical trial pros to develop the growing pipeline.
I'll take a stab long and short.
July 11, 2011....15.40....July 2 2012....17.48....about 13% higher year over year....July 12, 2013....19.67...again about 13% higher year over year. Taking in to account IMGN should have more drugs advancing into phase 3 within the next year then they have had previously, instead of 13% year over year again I will anticipate closer to 20% over July 12, 2013 19.67....So that being said....
Expecting it to be around 23.60 July 2014.
Next Top: I'm looking at the tops on April 11,2013....17.78.....May 30, 2013.....18.39.....July 12, 2013....19.67.....Next top I think should be about 9% above July, 12....19.67
Expecting next top to be close to $21.44
Sentiment: Strong Buy