So it's my recollection that earnings for IMGN haven't been super good in the past year or two besides one when we got an extra 10 million 2 quarters ago. Each time earnings rolls around, it's a reminder that we get only 1 million to 3 million for Kadcyla, even if it's "going to be the next best thing" we are only getting 3%. On top of that, it seems like most people on message boards think that Junius tends to flub these things when he opens his mouth, or sells his shares, and sends the stock rocketing down.
Maybe expectations for this quarter are at an all time low and we might see an upside after friday? We've got a slight uptick in Kadcyla sales, like 69 million vs last quarter's 66 million (that's a disappointment too). We've got a bunch of other drugs but none that are close to doing anything other than burning money now. Any licensing fees? There were more drugs taken by novartis and 200 million tossed around but I didn't hear of any payments at the time to IMGN.
All that could mean that if there's an unexpected payment, maybe we'll get an earnings beat.
Please correct me on any items I've missed or listed incorrectly.
no, the revs from Roche are easy to calculate. The licensing fee is the only unexpected variable in terms of revs unless IMGN earned an approval milestone maybe Canada? In this qtr last year IMGN lost .3 vs. an estimate of .25. The current est is -.23 and it has not been revised lately. Expect -.23 + - .02. Kadcyla revs will be growing over time with additional countries and as they move into first line. Maybe Kad revs will grow to $800MM next year, which would pay IMGN about $24MM. Once we get over $1BB in a year, the fee jumps up to 5%. The real money will start rolling in probably in 2015 - 2016. By 2017-2018 IMGN should be profitable unless they try to move their own products into multiple phase III trials.
I hope that IMGN execs and BOD notice how much time, expertise and cost Roche is investing in Kadcyla and decide to partner with large pharma or bio-pharma after phase II (inflection point, proof of concept) for all of those reasons, speed!!!, IMGN's lack or trial expertise/success, cost/avoidance of additional dilution, risk, lack of operating, marketing and sales experience/expertise...We just need 1 large winner like PCYC and everyone will be happy!
not true, I think they got 2 MM now, milestones possible. They might beat by a few pennies, (not sure if htey had to give greedy Greg an expensive package) but I would not expect anything substantial. Over the next year they will have a lot of early stage trial updates, one mid/late stage trial 901 and many Kadcyla updates, it should be a good year for news flow, with the possible exception of one event 901, for which I have low expectations, but I don't think expectations are high, so low risk, high potential return and a low bar/very difficult therapeutic area.