From the IV Board
ASH meeting highlighted strong efficacy data for anti-CD38 antibody daratumumab (dara) in combination with Revlimid, a component of current standard of care for multiple myeloma (MM). While still early and in a small patient population, objective response rate (ORR) of 72% indicates potential for CD38 combo therapy to set a new standard of care.
also outlined a broad development program in MM, in-line with our view, and we continue to model dara as first CD38 to market in 2016 with peak sales of $2.3bn.
Sanofi/ImmunoGen presented data from a Phase I monotherapy study of anti-CD38 SAR650894 in relapsed/refractory MM indicating strong single agent activity with ORR 30% at higher dose levels. With strong efficacy and a shorter infusion time (2 hours) relative to dara, we believe ‘894 is a viable contender and potential threat to dara’s position. Sanofi has yet to outline the development plan/timeline, but we estimate ‘894 could be on the market in the 2017-18 timeframe.
Morphosys’ anti-CD38 MOR202 clinical profile remains uncertain, and we don’t expect data (r/r MM monotherapy) until ASCO 2014, but Morphosys/Celgene may provide an update to the development strategy/timelines in early 2014. Potential areas for differentiation versus Genmab’s dara include a shorter infusion time (2 hours), a less CDC-dependent tumor killing mechanism, less depletion of NK cells, and lower infusion reactions potentially indicating a better safety and
tolerability profile. We model a 2017 launch and peak sales of $1.9bn
ASH highlighted increased competition to Genmab’s dara, which we believe is likely to be followed by more potentially negative news flow in 2014 including Morphosys’ updated development plan in 1Q14 and MOR202 data at the ASCO conference in mid-2014. We see additional headwinds from the ibrutinib head-to-head data presentation with Arzerra in r/r CLL in 1Q14.
Source: Goldman Sachs/Chesney, December 16, 2013
based on a real quick reading 1) the science is above my pay grade, maybe CH can tell us more, I would have to invest a lot of time to understand this, it looks new 2) the results look interesting, very early stage. 3) Oral is a plus 4) The market cap seems large for the stage, especially compared to IMGN but I have not reviewed their entire portfolio. I also understand it might be relatively large for a good reason. It's worth further investigation and has certainly worked out well for those who bought early.