The only surprise that I see is a potential milestone payment for the latest drug achieving orphan drug status. I am personally waiting till the second half for Marianne and for the BT062 buy in to occur. I haven't seen any other events that might trigger a milestone payment.
It looks to me like sales of Kadcyla are flat in the US, and despite their expansion in the world it's not going to be the 4 billion dollar drug within the next year or two. I have a hard time figuring out what Kadcyla sales will be in 2 years time, as it seems that Roche has no incentive to push Kadcyla right now and they are instead pushing perjeta.
I keep seeing that comment here, that Kadcyla is dissapointing because Perjeta sales are so much better. Currently Perjeta is approved for two indications in combination use with Herceptin. Kadcyla is currently approved to treat HER2-positive breast cancer that has spread to other parts of the body (metastatic breast cancer) after prior treatment with trastuzumab (Herceptin®) and a taxane. Prior treatment could have been for the initial treatment of breast cancer or for the treatment of cancer that had spread to other parts of the body. So it should not be a big surprise that Perjeta is currently outselling Kadcyla, just due to the approved indications and thus what oncologists can prescribe within the label.
If you go to clinical trials.gov yo will see over 40 trials for Kadcyla. The big trial (MARIANNE) ongoing is in 1st line MBC, and that trial has one arm with Kadcyla plus Perjeta. This is the indication that will put Kadcyla on the map and open up earnings considerably. We should see some data in 2014, but the trial is not scheduled to end until April 2016. So just sit back and wait.