Keep in mind that revenues will increase next year
1. Milestone payments as licensed drugs move into more advance stage in the clinic. Partners have probably informed Imgn already of future plants. This will show that technology is working. pps should move up whenever partner announces next trial phase. SAR3419 will transition to ph3.
2. Additional ADC licenses from partners are anticipated - early discussions have most probably taken place already for new antibodies. Again, this only means that technology is working. pps should move up whenever new license is announced.
3. Kadcyla revenues will exceed 1B next year. 2B by 2016 means 100M for IMGN? Kadcyla for gastric cancer NDA should be filed in 2015. GC is big in China, Japan, and Korea. pps should move up.
If new licenses from new partners are taken, then there will be additional revenues on top of the 3 reasons above. Those are only for the partnered drugs. If 853 results look promising, the orphan should make IMGN rich.
ASH: SAR3419, SAR650984 and BT062 data will hopefully be presented
I would like also to see ADCs used outside of cancer.
Conclusion: I think 2015 will be a huge year for IMGN, barring WWIII.
yes, and there will also be substantial increases in costs that offset the rev increase. I am just saying, they "we have plenty of cash to make it to proof of something", then they let loose with another 10MM shares and kill the share price for 3 months. They need to wait for higher prices, sell, or hire a new CEO to improve the share price. It seems like SGEN and a little industry increase (maybe some short covering) is pulling IMGN up, nothing that IMGN has said, or done. I hope they make me eat my words!
yes, we always think the next year is going to be the year form IMGN. Shareholders have been thinking that for 25 years! I am trying to put IMGN in play, ready for an acquisition/exit at a higher price. The current price/valuation is a joke thanks to the steep "weak management discount". Change the management and it will change the direction and outcome.
Mabman, the difference now is that the technology is actually working for solid tumors, in addition to blood cancers. Really not an easy feat considering what happened to Lilly ADC Mylotarg.
With the Endocyte anti-FR drug failing, I have some reservations about FR being a good target. But 853 might work where ECYT's drug failed.
I am actually excited about 289 because of low ORR and high relapse for naked anti-EGFRs. Hopefully 289 will work as well or better than erbitux plus chemo. I anticipate, and am worried though, that it may have the same or more skin and GI tract toxicity than erbitux.
If IMGN can't make their fully owned ADCs to work, we can hope that they can consider a PDL-like business. Fire most everybody and collect the 500M/yr royalty payments for Kadcyla and plus the rest of the partnered drugs.