I believe we will see shares issued in the .25 to .30 range during the next round of raising capital. Ah the growing pains of speculative investing. Been watching and waiting on this little co to grow some roots for some time now. I would caution anyone who relies on Petersen's rosiest of scenarios, his judgement is severely clouded by his millions worth of shares. He consistently ignores the significant downside risk at this entry point for a developmental stage company.
As promising as this technology may be, this company could still fall apart before they ever gain industry acceptance or any kind of solid revenue producing customer base. Look for opportunities to enter after the next round of financing. Also, look for favorable company outlook from analysts outside of Petersen and other insiders before jumping in, unless of course you don't mind gambling a little bit to be in early.
I will say there is no possible reverse split until issued and outstanding reach approx 400 - 500 million. At the current rate that would be worst case scenario in say another 2 - 3 - 4 years so I think that possibility in the 1 % category in the next 2 year or less. I won't say a RS won't happen, if they keep going the same way it will, just don't see any likelyhood of it in next 2 years.
If I recall correctly they authorized 200 ml, there is not need for a reverse split before they are issued, and they could always authorize another say 200 ml.
So reverse split aint gonna happen in the next year or 2 anyway...
Now the .25 - .38 I have been predicting as a very real possibility given the selling by quercus, selling by special situations, and what I understand is the intent to sell another 10 ml or 15 ml more shares by AXPW to raise funds.
We all know axion needs money. 10 ml shares at .50 only gets them 5 million USD and I think they would have a hard time putting 10 ml shares up on the market and holding at a price of .5. I also understand or believe or guess they desire to raise around 7 ml to get them through 2012.
Operating loss has been historically a low of about 7 and they have some sales from the 'old style' battery but they also had 'other' income so I think they need to raise at least 7 ml and at .5 that is 14 ml shares.
volume did in fact rise as did the price but we are now back down at historic lows on both counts.
The only hope of not hitting the .25 - .38 range I will guess is an increase to say .80 and then sales going off at .5 - .8, and as my guess only the announcement of the OEM involved with the recent DOE app or a contract from an OEM will get them there. I do not think another order of say 1500 batteries for testing by NS is enough, I think everyone knows NS is involved, we need new news, not old news reiterated for any significant and stable climb.
it is my opinion that it is very very unfortunate for the company that both quercus and special situations decided to sell at the same time, this could easily maintained above $ 1.00 if not, also the lose on the DOE app was the nail in the coffen. If they got the DOE announcement quercus and special situations may have been able to unload the rest while keeping the price down at least they could have finished selling (I believe they have around 6 million more to go).
In short, my opinion, add up 6 ml from q and ss and 14 from axion and we are looking at 20 ml shares entering the market, low volume, and buyers drying up.
I know that makes alot of people here quite angry, so they will say I am a basher with a hidden agenda, but they are wrong. Just my opinion and I am an owner of shares, but having posted positive things I post negative things too, I post everything I think about, not pumping not bashing, just reality as i understand it.
Good luck to all.
Good point, a reverse split is less likely than I initially had thought. My original thinking was that they may up-list after the next round of financing. I would hope that at that point they would have enough momentum to then maintain a healthy share price thus avoid issuing shares at a discount. There are dozens of ways this could play out I suppose, but I will watch and wait for now.
Basher alert - Um, you've been watching and waiting since you created your Yahoo account 4 days ago. Don't bother acting indignant. About 20 messages so far and you haven't said anything good about any stock yet.
JG, just what is it you are saying? Does the age of my yahoo account somehow invalidate my opinion? Do you disagree with my price target or do you simply take exception to new yahoo customers?
I have no position in AXPW, long or short. How many shares of AXPW do you have? How many other stocks do you pump on message boards beside AXPW?(my guess is none, since your id was created solely to attack people who expose Petersen for what he is) What other IDs do you use to attack posters who disagree with Petersen's rosiest of scenarious? Are you a director, former director, or otherwise associated with AXPW? Are you pumping this stock from a chalet on foriegn soil, safe from SEC jurisdiction?
I think if you are going to wait for $0.25-0.30/share you may be waiting a long time. NS seems to be progressing as expected and this company doesn't have any debt that it needs to make payments on. Auto may still be a few years away for market penetration, but if you believe the data on the white paper, it will come. You should never buy a stock based on what Mr. Petersen or anyone else says...me inclueded. Do your DD and buy the stock if you believe the company will make a future profit. As for a reverse split, again not going to happen. This stock is an OTCBB stock, so it doesn't need any specific price to stay listed.
I am a patient man, I am still waiting but now that it is trading in my target range, I am once again waiting on the next round of financing, as there has not been enough company progress to assume risk at this point.
"I would caution anyone who relies on Petersen's rosiest of scenarios, his judgement is severely clouded by his millions worth of shares."
I think, like any savvy career motivated individual, he is leveraging his past axpw experience into a new career, writing crafty, witty prose about energy storage issues. It modulates the risks, and diversifies the benefit to him personally.
The Murdochian headlines and vituperative usage of straw man debate techniques only belittles his position, alienates readers, and shows a 30 year experience in lawyering,and we know what most common people think of that.
I do not believe in superman.