Of course on days like these you won't hear from the Fosco and tut and alike. BECAUSE...they don't have a phucking clue.. They are sitting on the sidelines waiting for an entry point where they can make an attempt to make a name for themselves with their know-it-all bizarre predictions.
I discourage EVERYONE to refrain from making stupid and senseless predictions because we have a lot of inexperienced investors on these boards looking for their pot of gold and chasing their dreams.. They take anything and everything they read that sounds promising and run with it.
In the process they loose money they can ill afford.
FRE/FNM have corrected back to where they were before Treasury's Dec 24th announcement.
With congressional approval required to make any changes to the FRE/FNM arrangement after Dec 31 2009, those paying attention knew that Treasury was going to do something. In the currently political environment, congress isn't giving Treasury squat without a massive crisis evident, so people should have expected Treasury's grab to be a big one.
So we're back to waiting for two things: in June of '09, and again in the Dec 24th Treasury statement, Treasury indicated that FRE/FNM's future would be discussed in the president's budget outline in February.
So we have FRE/FNM earnings in Feb & the budget outline. FRE/FNM are a big tool in the administrations arsenal now to affect the housing/mortgage market.
I'm inclined not to bet against the gov't in the short term. I think FRE/FNM are in for a bumpy ride, but I don't see common being wiped out, so I'll bet with the government on this one.