Hindsight is 50/50 at best. What we just saw was a short squeeze I owned it from .30 Bought more at .50 Tried to sell at 1.39 (missed it) at 1.02 (missed .99 in the process) and sold out at .80. (yay me!)
Going forward. Watch the preferreds to see what the common will do. The Pfds trade at a fraction of the $50 (or $25) par value Say they are at $5 (to make the math easy) so they are at 1/10th the par. The value of the common = the total value of the preferreds at about $4 per common share. If the pfds are at $5, the common should be around .40 1/10th the $4.00 (33% higher then the .30 they were trading at). The pfd's movement precedes the common. (Could be just co incidence, but it's interesting anyway)
I think that FRE and FNM are takeover candidates. If you are big enough you can borrow the money to buy them at less than the 10% they are paying the gov't. That turns the interest savings into earnings per share.
I would like to see a sovereign fund or better yet a consortium of state retirement funds buy them. They have money coming in every week that needs to be invested at good rates. If they set the mortgage rate at 7% and funded the mortgages with employee contributions, the nation's municipal retirement funds would be well on their way to solvency.
The reason not to have every dime in here is that you're dealing with the government. It's always "risky" to play with a guy who can change the rules. But I'll be looking to reestablish positions in the $.40 range.
BTW, reading you people is hysterical, the vast majority have no clue about ANYTHING! (Not you, of course, but, you know... the other guy. He's the guy I mean!)
OK, I'm a Jackass... But I'm a Jackass that will be able to own twice as many shares as I had when it was $.80 when it gets to $.40. So when it goes to $2 next time (based on news, not on a short squeeze) I'll be that much further ahead.
Fear v. greed, person, greed v. fear; If you let your decisions be guided by either... Bulls make money, Bears make money, Hogs get slaughtered.
You ought to stop looking at this as pennies and look at it as a percentage gain (loss). If you bought a stock at $30 and it went to $80 you'd think that was pretty AOK, right? It's the same percentage move.