I think you're off base with your estimate of 60 cents earnings drop this quarter. That would be what, 1/2 of the estimated earnings for the quarter? There's no reason earnings will drop that low.
With 692 million shares out, Allsatte would need a $415 million loss (above what was estimated for) for that to happen, and I don't see it.
Insurers estimate for catastrophes, I'm sure they had to estimate for some portion of cat loss this quarter.
Also, the last few quarters we have seen Allstate's earnings rise due to success in their financial security ventures, I would think that trend will continue for some time, it has alot of room to mature and grow yet.
I will concede earnings may drop some, but 60 cents no way... I don't think earnings will drop even half that, but we'll see....
To make things worse... Ivan is currently predicted to hit this area as a poss cat 5. The residents here are already very worn out and at wits end. I am not even going to fix my damage until the house is leveled or the all clear is given. I give either one a 50/50 chance as of this post. Someone please call the fund managers and tell them that there will most likely be another of the nations largest disasters before the middle of next week and they should run the price up some more before the weekend so they can line their pockets from my tax dollars and yours. No one can plan for three of these in one month.