My home got about 5 k in damages...maybe more and my hurricane deductable is 5k. Not good news for me. Most houses here were not badly damaged. There were a lot of sunken boats all over the state and car damage from trees and wrecks. Seems like half the state lost electricity and even here many are without still and we were not on the first strike side of the storm. As far as the article on insurance stock prices....ALL went up in price days before the hit, during the storm and even after. I don't know how this game is played or how that can even happen , but that article should address what happens when the stock price goes up before ,during and after major catastrophies. If it is really that benificial for insurance companies, than something is wrong here. All comments welcome!
Allstate shares climbed 89 cents, or 1.9 percent, to $47.91. The Northbrook, Ill.-based company said last week that it expects pretax losses from Hurricane Charley to be about $425 million. The firm indicated losses after taxes would be $276 million, or 40 cents a share.
This does not inclued Frances loss could well be .60+ loss.
I think you're off base with your estimate of 60 cents earnings drop this quarter. That would be what, 1/2 of the estimated earnings for the quarter? There's no reason earnings will drop that low.
With 692 million shares out, Allsatte would need a $415 million loss (above what was estimated for) for that to happen, and I don't see it.
Insurers estimate for catastrophes, I'm sure they had to estimate for some portion of cat loss this quarter.
Also, the last few quarters we have seen Allstate's earnings rise due to success in their financial security ventures, I would think that trend will continue for some time, it has alot of room to mature and grow yet.
I will concede earnings may drop some, but 60 cents no way... I don't think earnings will drop even half that, but we'll see....